Vanda pumila bud watch and questions

I got this V. pumila back in 2011 as group of small seedlings mounted on little log:



Over the years it grew to this:



Now there is a bud starting:




A few months ago it already started one bud, but it stayed small and dormant forever and is still there:



The questions to experienced vanda growers:
- does the fact that second spike is more green means that it has better chances to progress and actually bloom?
- what could trigger the stall of the first spike?

Thanks a lot for your help.

[jcec1]

The lower growth may be vegetative and not a bloom spike. They can look quite similar when small.