Out for delivery!

[Shoreguy]

Pattywack,

Yours looks good.

The reason why this variety doesn't get much respect (ie it's dirt cheap) is that it is a prolific grower. If it were a slow grower with the same appearance, it would be wildly popular and pricey. Everybody would want it and pay dearly for the few available.

Think Kinbotan. I know I am going to get in trouble for this (being highly opinionated, I always do) but the only thing Kinbotan has going for it is ruby root tips and temporarily variegated new leaves. (Ruby root tips are available much more cheaply). But Kinbotan is evidentially not that vigorous and therefore very costly due to unavailability.

[Hakumin]

Originally Posted by Shoreguy

Think Kinbotan. I know I am going to get in trouble for this (being highly opinionated, I always do) but the only thing Kinbotan has going for it is ruby root tips and temporarily variegated new leaves. (Ruby root tips are available much more cheaply). But Kinbotan is evidentially not that vigorous and therefore very costly due to unavailability.

Not to contradict your personal tastes, since not everyone has the same preferences in Neo characteristics, but the costliness of Kinbotan actually has little to do with availability or vigor at all. In fact, I would hardly call Kinbotan rare, and it is not really a slow or difficult variety to grow.

Kinbotan is expensive because the demand for the variety is extremely high. The demand for Kinbotan is so high in Korea and Japan that even though there are a lot of Kinbotans out there, there are still people willing to pay large sums of money on each specimen. Among collectors in Japan and Korea, Kinbotan is undeniably the single most popular Neo variety in existence. The majority of serious growers there own up to 10 individual specimens of the variety, and quite a few growers own several dozen, with no intent to stop buying more.

The reason the variety is so popular among serious neo collectors is of course for its appearance, but it is also because of its tendency to be unstable. Even though Kinbotan is strictly only propagable by division, not every division made from Kinbotan is of the same quality or characteristics and specimens can easily let out higher or lower quality growths.

Some specimens have bright yellow variegation, others have greener variegation. Some have lots of sumi, some don't. Some produce large amounts of anthocyanin pigmentation, some don't, Some have darker ruby roots, some have muddier roots. Some are bigger, some are smaller, some are more prone to shifting or producing further mutations and others tend to be more stable across its growths. It's also not uncommon at all for Kinbotans to revert back to Kokubotan.

Beyond that, Kinbotan has the ability to spontaneously mutate into several other varieties including Kinbotan-shima, Kinbotan-Kishima, Botan-nishiki, Kinshaboku, Gessho, Gesshokan, Kokubotan-Shima etc.

The range of possible changes in Kinbotan seems endless and serious collectors in Japan and Korea enjoy growing Kinbotan for this ability to shift and change. However, to increase their chances of seeing these changes during their lifetimes, many growers buy multiples of the variety.

Because of all of this variability though, even though the price of the variety as a whole is pretty high, the price range is also pretty wide. You'll find lower quality Kinbotan specimens as low as $400 for one growth, to $3000 for a single exceptional quality growth, and some of the named mutations can fetch $5000 to $10,000 for a single growth.

Now, of course though, I'm not trying to contradict the original intent of your argument. There are indeed plenty of other varieties that are expensive simply because of their rarity.

[Shoreguy]

Hakumin,

You and every ardent follower of this section of the Board knows that I would never question the authority of your postings and it’s possible I would never have been drawn to the Board had it not been for you.

However, I can think of another variety that in many ways mimics most everything you said about Kinbotan except its extreme popularity and associated costs, and that of course is Nishidemiyako, a low cost variety.

Maybe fewer named mutations but is that enough to justify the disparity between how they are judged? Let’s face it, $5,000 or so is serious money for a single growth.

[Hakumin]

Originally Posted by Shoreguy

Maybe fewer named mutations but is that enough to justify the disparity between how they are judged?

Among the collectors in Japan and Korea, who drive the price of Neos, yes, it is.

In all seriousness though, that's where the appearance of the variety also comes into play. A well grown good quality kinbotan is considered that much more beautiful and desirable than Nishidemiyako or it's mutations. Also, the visible characteristics of a good well grown nishidemiyako is similar at first glance to dozens of other neo varieties. The visible charactersitics of a good well grown Kinbotan is not found in any other variety.

Beyond that there could be some hype in play too. Don't forget that any collector's market is driven by forces that can't always be explained by logic.

In any case, regardless of what the reason for the cost is, the indisputable fact is that Kinbotan is simply not rare, and isn't an exceptionally slow grower.

Originally Posted by Shoreguy

Let’s face it, $5,000 or so is serious money for a single growth.

Multiply that by 6 or 7 or even 10, and that's the price range you get for certain truly rare and coveted varieties—the kind of varieties that are hard to find even if you had endless amounts of money.

[Shoreguy]

Originally Posted by Hakumin

A well grown good quality kinbotan is considered that much more beautiful and desirable than Nishidemiyako. Beyond that there could be some history and hype in play too.

I am sure the Kinbotan pictures that I have seen are not of the highly prized ones. As a matter of fact, none appealed to me in the least and I feel I am pretty discerning wrt neos. Maybe I’m not, but if that is the case, I am benefiting greatly financially from not being discerning.

[Hakumin]

Originally Posted by Shoreguy

I am sure the Kinbotan pictures that I have seen are not of the highly prized ones. As a matter of fact, none appealed to me in the least and I feel I am pretty discerning wrt neos. Maybe I’m not, but if that is the case, I am benefiting greatly financially from not being discerning.

Again, personal taste. Some people might not like Kinbotan as much as the growers that drive the price do. Doesn't mean that it's not considered extraordinarily beautiful by those that do.

Similarly, there are people like diamonds, and there are some that don't and think they're overpriced. Just because some people don't like them doesn't mean that there aren't enough people who do to drive the price.

[Shoreguy]

Great discussion. If anything, it has livened up the Board for an hour or two.