I'd allow about 4 hours at least. You can probably do it in less, depending on your "shopping speed". Also suggest that you pack a sandwich, so you don't have to lose time looking for lunch - the snack bar at the Fairgrounds is "meh", they may or may not have a food truck. And actual sit-down lunch takes time, also some searching (to find restaurants you mostly have to go the next offramp past the nurseries, into Isla Vista) My all-time record for getting there early on Saturday morning is 1 hour 53 minutes but that assumes treating speed limits as a "suggestion", haven't had traffic that light in years, 2.5 is hours more realistic from my house too. No shortcuts on fuel. So depends on your motivation. (I have found that the return is 3 hours at best, I have spent more than 4 but that was in the summer where there was beach traffic making it slow to get out of Santa Barbara, not going to be a problem this weekend) If the forecast rain hasn't already moved through, a reason to not do it - nurseries mostly outside, and people don't know how to drive in the rain causing significant extra traffic.
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