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Global meltdown
I would like to guage awarness in the orchid community about global warming and how serious it really is. Comments on the issue are appreciated.
I for one think we are in deep doo-doo as I don't think any of our world leaders have any true interest in saving the planet ---> in saving us from ourselves. :( Global meltdown | Environment | The Guardian Global meltdown Scientists fear that global warming will bring climatic turbulence, with changes coming in big jumps rather than gradually
That quote highlights most vividly why scientists are getting panicky about the sheer speed and violence with which climate change could take hold. They are realising that their old ideas about gradual change - the smooth lines on graphs showing warming and sea level rise and gradually shifting weather patterns - simply do not represent how the world's climate system works. Dozens of scientists told me the same thing while I was researching my book The Last Generation. Climate change did not happen gradually in the past, and it will not happen that way in the future. Planet Earth does not do gradual change. It does big jumps; it works by tipping points. The story of research into sea level rise is typical of how perceptions have changed in the past five years. The conventional view - you can still read it in reports from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - holds that sea levels will start to rise as a pulse of warming works its way gradually from the surface through the 2km- and 3km-thick ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, melting them. The ice is thick and the heat will penetrate only slowly. So we have hundreds, probably thousands, of years to make our retreat to higher ground. Recent research, however, shows that idea is wholly wrong. Glaciologists forgot about crevasses. What is actually happening is that ice is melting at the surface and forming lakes that drain down into the crevasses. In 10 seconds, the water is at the base of the ice sheet, where it lubricates the join between ice and rock. Then the whole ice sheet starts to float downhill towards the ocean. "These flows completely change our understanding of the dynamics of ice sheet destruction," says Alley. "Even five years ago, we didn't know about this." This summer, lakes several kilometres across formed on the Greenland ice sheet, and drained away to the depths. Scientists measured how, within hours of the lakes forming, the vast ice sheets physically rose up, as if floating on water, and slid towards the ocean. That is why Greenland glaciers are flowing faster, and there are more icebergs breaking off into the Atlantic Ocean. That is why average sea level rise has increased from 2mm a year in the early 1990s to more than 3mm a year now. Soon it could be a great deal more. Jim Hansen of Nasa, George Bush's top climate modeller, predicts that sea level rise will be 10 times faster within a few years, as Greenland destabilises. "Building an ice sheet takes a long time," he says. "But destroying it can be explosively rapid." Alarmist? No. It has happened before, he says. During the final few centuries of the last ice age, the sea level rose 20 metres in 400 years, an average of 20 times faster than now. These were sudden, violent times. And the melting was caused by tiny wobbles in the Earth's orbit that changed the heat balance of the planet by only a fraction as much as our emissions of greenhouse gases are doing today. Violent change There is more evidence of abrupt and violent change, most of it culled from ice cores, lake sediments, tree rings and other natural archives of climate. We now know that the last ice age was not a stable cold era but near-permanent climate change. Towards the end, around 11,000 years ago, average temperatures in parts of the Arctic rose by 16C or more within a decade. Alley believes it happened within a single year, though he says the evidence in the ice cores is not precise enough to prove it. All this comes as a surprise to us because, in the 10,000 or so years since the end of the last ice age, the climate has been, relatively speaking, stable. We have had warm periods and mini ice ages; but they were little compared with events before. It is arguable that this rather benign world has been the main reason why our species was able to leave the caves and create the urban, industrial civilisation we enjoy today. Our complex society relies on our being able to plant crops and build cities, knowing that the rains will come and the cities will not be flooded by incoming tides. When that certainty fails, as when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans last year, even the most sophisticated society is brought to its knees. But there is a growing fear among scientists that, thanks to man-made climate change, we are about to return to a world of climatic turbulence, where tipping points are constantly crossed. Their research into the workings of the planet's ecosystems suggests why such sudden changes have happened in the past, and are likely again in future. One driver of fast change in the past has been abrupt movements of carbon between the atmosphere and natural reservoirs such as the rainforests and the oceans. Hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide can burp into the atmosphere, apparently at the flick of a switch. That is why the Met Office's warning that the Amazon rainforest could die by mid-century, releasing its stored carbon from trees and soils into the air, is so worrying. And why we should take serious note when Peter Cox, professor of climate systems at Exeter University, warns that the world's soils, which have been soaking up carbon for centuries, may be close to a tipping beyond which they will release it all again. Other threats lurk on the horizon. We know that there are trillions of tonnes of methane, a virulent greenhouse gas, trapped in permafrost and in sediments beneath the ocean bed. There are fears this methane may start leaking out as temperatures warm. It seems this happened 55m years ago, when gradual warming of the atmosphere penetrated to the ocean depths and unlocked the methane, which caused a much greater warming that resulted in the extinction of millions of species. All this suggests that, in one sense, the climate sceptics are right. They say the future is much less certain than the climate models predict. They have a point. We know less than we think. But the sceptics are wrong in concluding that the models have been exaggerating the threat. Far from it. Evidence emerging in the past five years or so suggests the presence of many previously unknown tipping points that could trigger dangerous climate change. Can we call a halt? Hansen says we have 10 years to turn things round and escape disaster. James Lovelock, author of the Gaia theory, which considers the Earth a self-regulated living being, reckons we are already past the point of no return. I don't buy that. For one thing, there is no single point of no return. We have probably passed some, but not others. The water may be lapping at our ankles, but I am not ready to head for the hills yet. I'm an optimist. · Fred Pearce is author of The Last Generation - How Nature Will Take Her Revenge for Climate Change, Eden Project Books, £12.99. To order a copy for £11.99 with free UK p&p call 0870 836 0875 or go to guardian.co.uk/bookshop |
I realize that autos, industry, etc. are a cause for the global warming, but I'm more convinced that the cause is cyclical too. There appears to be an overabundance of data on everything for everything.
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I suspect that we are ruining the planet, but I don't expect it to stop. It isn't what we do, but instaed the number of people doing it. Overpopulation is the problem and nobody will touch that issue with a ten foot pole.
In the 60's the Population Bomb and other books caused a long term reduction in the American birth rate. I guess we really responded to the threat. However, with the help of ignorance and the Pope the remainder of the world kept right on making them babies. Now the US is said to suffer because we have too few workers and have to send our jobs to China or import Indians and Mexicans to make up for the shortfall. It is not possible to reduce sex and apparently not possible to reduce the results of same. So the human part of the planet is doomed. I guess bugs will go on...maybe, maybe not...who knows. I guess I'll get to depart this world before the starvation and disease get too bad. Oh Well!! |
No alternative for me!
I would like to se the alternative: I knew it was realy bad but I will try to make it right! /Magnus |
I think it's really interesting that the thing that surely has the most impact on our current climate has been pretty much ignored. Isn't anybody interested in the effects the SUN has on our climate and weather patterns? :yawn:
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Global Warming
Make no mistake; anyone who has lived in FL, IL, CO, CA and pretty much any other state has seen a change - especially when it comes to plant life. If people haven't noticed, then they aren't paying attention. Stop listening to the corrupt petroleum-fed Administration in Washington DC and open your eyes.:shock:
Global warming is real and not to be taken lightly. We have turned a blind eye toward the situation for far too long - just like Reagan did with AIDS and we all know how that turned out.:fight :fight :fight |
Funny thing is there are just two groups of people causing all the problems. There are the consumers who have a lust for fossil fuel consuming vehicles and processes (such as barbeque grills) and the folks who don't understand that clear-cutting their forests will one day spell their doom. It's pretty easy to blame those who live in central america/northern south america where the largest block of frorests remain, but we in the US are just as much to blame (as are other countries and continents) where more temperate forests have been reduced to subdivisions to provide yuppies a place to live. Ian McHarg, in his rather eye-opening book "Design With Nature", proposed that human beings live on the land base least important for farming or forests (like mountain areas). How strange that was, and I bet very few here have ever heard of this book, because it got little press - see it doesn't support the American "make a buck" attitude. Want me to get on a soap box, or has this been enough? :biggrin: :hmm
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I've been reading books on Self-Sufficiency to prepare - because the time is coming, and its probably coming within my lifetime. I was just commenting this morning that our weather now always seems to the 'something-est' - this past summer was the wettest, last winter was the warmest, the summer before that was the hottest, the winter before that was the driest. Wonder what this winter will be?
Ross, thanks for pointing out that book... I've not read it, but its now on the list! I'm currently reading "A Handmade Life" by W.M.S. Coperthwaite - this one doesn't support the 'make a buck' attitude either. I think overall consumerism has a lot more to answer for than just global warming. Step on up on that soap box!! |
Perhaps, the Coldest Shakkai. :(
Can you tell me more about this self sufficiency book? I have a feeling I'm gonna need it :) |
Here is some news on the subject:
By ARTHUR MAX, Associated Press Writer 46 minutes ago If there's one document on global warming policymakers might put in their briefcase, this would be it. On Monday, scientists and government officials gather in Valencia, Spain to put together the fourth and last U.N. report on the state of global warming and what it will mean to hundreds of millions of people whose lives are being dramatically altered. Unlike the past three tomes, this one will have little new data. Instead, it will distill the previous work into a compact guide of roughly 30 pages that summarizes complex science into language politicians and bureaucrats can understand. It will be the first point of reference for negotiators meeting next month in Bali, Indonesia, to decide the future course of the worldwide push to curb greenhouse gas emissions after the 2012 expiration of the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol, the landmark agreement that assigned binding reduction targets to 36 countries. The last of four reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change "integrates all the elements, the connections between them," said one of its authors, Bert Metz, of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. U.N. officials delayed the Bali meeting by several months until after the report is released, expecting it would add political momentum to the conference. Though the IPCC was created in 1988 to assess the science of global warming, its work gathered a momentum this year that has helped reshape opinion in the public and governments. In the ultimate validation, the IPCC's warnings of man-induced climate change shared the Nobel Peace prize with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, the world's best known global warming campaigner. "The reactions that I heard from politicians around the world is that they were shocked by the reports and that they should be acted on," said Yvo de Boer, the U.N.'s top climate official. The United States, Australia and many developing countries that shunned the Kyoto treaty are now ready to begin discussing a successor agreement at the Bali conference, De Boer said. "There is a growing consensus that Bali needs to achieve a breakthrough to put negotiations in place, and that's very encouraging," he said. "But it's not going to be a piece of cake." The studies issued earlier this year painted a dire picture of a planet in which unabated greenhouse gas emissions could drive average temperatures up as much as 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. Even a 2-degree-Celsius (3.6-degree-Fahrenheit) rise could subject up to 2 billion people to water shortages by 2050 and threaten extinction for 20 percent to 30 percent of the world's species, the IPCC said. The consequences for mankind are legion: while some people will go thirsty from lack of rain, millions more will suffer devastating floods; diseases will proliferate; the food supply may at first increase in some areas, but will plummet later; countries that are now poor will grow still poorer. The scientists set out a basket of technological options to keep the temperature rise to the minimum, with investments amounting to about 3 percent of the world's gross domestic product — far less than what the IPCC said it would cost later to fix the damage caused by higher temperature increases. Campaigners are looking for the final "synthesis report" to emphasize the action governments can take, the consequences of inaction and the brief time remaining to put that action into gear. "We would want to emphasize the urgency which comes from the science," said Stephanie Tunmore of the Greenpeace environmental group. "We know what's happening, we know what's causing it, and we know what we have to do about it." A draft report of about 60 pages — distilling the previous three reports totaling more than 4,000 pages — has been circulating for months to governments, environmentalists and scientists for comment. The authors gathered in Valencia last week to incorporate some of the comments into the final draft. Starting Monday, delegations from 145 countries meeting in this Spanish Mediterranean city will review the Summary for Policymakers, the critical document that becomes the single most important reference for nonscientists. Each line must be adopted by consensus — and sometimes the use of a single word can be heatedly contested. The final document is due to be released Saturday. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's presence at the unveiling is meant to underscore its importance. "I expect some scuffling over the final language," especially over the urgency and the level of certainty of some predicted events, said Peter Altman, of the Washington-based lobby National Environmental Trust. Despite the haggling, the political input into a scientific document is essential, because governments cannot later disown it. "After the summary is approved, it becomes the property of the governments," said Metz, who was one of about 40 scientists working on the final draft. "It becomes difficult for them to ignore the conclusions that they were subscribing to." |
Thanks for this Tindo. While not so worried about myself, I am terribly worried for my grandchildren. All I have to worry about is lack of food, lack of fuel, no beaches in Florida, etc. My grandchildren may experience a world like no human being has seen so far. Who knows?
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Tin,
The best one, I think, is: "The New Complete Book of Self-Sufficiency" by John Seymour (Amazon link) "Self Reliance: A Recipe For The New Millennium" by John Yoeman (Amazon link) is another really good one that covers quite a range of topics including preparations to make and actions to take in case of any kind of disaster. Quote from the back of the book: Quote:
The 12 design priniciples of Permaculture (from the book) are: 1. Observe and Interact - "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder." 2. Catch and Store Energy - "Make hay while the sun shines." 3. Obtain a Yield - "You can't work on an empty stomach." 4. Apply Self-regulation and Accept Feedback - "The sins of the fathers are visited on the children unto the seventh generation." 5. Use and Value Renewable Resources and Services - "Let nature take its course." 6. Produce No Waste - "Waste not, want not." 7. Design from Patterns to Details - "Can't see the wood for the trees." 8. Integrate Rather than Segregate - "Many hands make light work." 9.Use Small and Slow Solutions - "The bigger they are, the harder they fall." and "Slow and steady wins the race." 10. Use and Value Diversity - "Don't put all of your eggs in one basket." 11. Use Edges and Value the Marginal - "Don't think you are on the right track just because it is a well beaten path." 12. Creatively Use and Respond to Change - "Vision is not seeing things as they are but as they will be." The book devotes a chapter to each priniciple. |
Global warming is happening now. If we aren't noticing it, then our heads are stuck in the ground. Every corner of the earth is being affected. Even areas that are untapped by humans are now starting to suffer. There's been ample studies about the polar bears' habitats slowly disintegrating...about the mutations of frogs, about bees disappearing, el nino (sp), winters are milder, summers are hotter. It's affecting everyone, but ever so slight that no one wants to notice. No one wants to be inconvenienced. We all want to live without inconvenience. After a while, it's going to bite us all in the ass. We should all be feeling a little nip about now.
No one can point fingers, we are all guilty. I'm guilty. It's just basic math. If we keep taking from the earth and not replenishing, it dies. Yes, I am very concerned. My little efforts to recycle each week is just not enough! However, I'm re-evaluating my lifestyle each day. I try not to do things on a whim, but to conserve. Everyone has to do that, and everyone has to look within instead of pointing fingers. Global warming didn't happen overnight, but our habits need to be addressed, like yesterday! This is not an easy subject and no easy answers. I may be naive but I think we can do this if we all pitched in. The first thing is to get educated on the facts and not just ignor what is happening or say it isn't happening. If there are enough voices, then and only then, does corporate business understand we want accountability for our one and only earth. kiki-do |
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The forests are thinning out a bit. . .only the toughest, most established trees seem to make it. While this alarms me, we were way over-wooded (that can't be a word!) due to previous year's policies to prevent wildlfires. . .so we were already out of balance going into the climate changes. The world will balance out in time but oh my God, the effects it will have on all living things. I think we have squandered our most precious gifts & I worry about what the world will be like for future generations. I don't think we have a real clue about the degree of change coming. I think it could well be a real shocker. . .we'll get on the ball at the last moment and. . . I guess we'll all do what we can and more than we thought we could. . .we'll be as strong as we need to be. Shame about the USA's lack of leadership. . .and I mean that. :dumb: What a terrible time in history to have this administration in power. I do not like the direction that we're going. |
We're all going to roast and all the folks down at wall street who only care about an increase in net profit and improve efficiency will realize that all their efforts to get a sweet bonus will be all for nothing because their push for efficiency and cost saving procedures requires building new machines, new cheaper paper, new better bulbs, new faster better computers adds to the global warming issue. And where we do put all the old machines, paper, bulbs, and computers?
I was watching this episode on TV about the new green line trains here in New York City. The new trains are fantastic. They're quick, cool in the summer and warm in the winter, and they have the nifty energy saving fluorescent bulbs which provides for great lighting. When it came to the point as to where they dump the old trains. Well that was straight into the Hudson. And their rational was "It will provide a home for the fish in the water" :cheer: Those guys deserve a medal. What they failed to mention was the metal corrodes. Rust in the water where fish that we eat live. This is the same water that coastal cities purify so we can get some drinking water. And the solution to purify is to get XYZ Company to build some high tech water purifier where more greenhouse gases are made in producing the product than how much the purifier really helps us. Cheers to capitalism. I love you. You provided me with a way in which to work and earn my way into a better living and a higher tax bracket. You have provided me a working toilet that efficiently and effectively flushes my problems away with the simple push of a lever. It makes my nights in a state of drunken stupor so much easier. You provided the 32" LCD TV in my room that I use to watch the gazelles roam in Africa on discovery channel, anime on the cartoon channel, and some cartoons on the Nikolodeon channel too. You provided the lamps that I use to help my keep my neos healthy and living. You provided me with the insecticides I've used recently to get rid of my mite problem. Some of which went down my sink. Some of which I inhaled because I'm trying to do my piece in helping out the environment. Cheers to Ben Bernake. I love you and I love what you've done with the federal rate cuts. Your dunce cap is a whole lot taller than mine I am deeply jealous. Maybe you sniffed a whole lot more insecticide than I have. You've done us all a great help. You're my hero. Cheers to me and you and all the other folks that live in a modern world who can't live without the luxuries we own. I love my life, capitalism and all, and all the things that make it simple. I'm only a single thread in the complicated tapestry that is this problem of Global Warming. I accept my fate and I live happily knowing that I may have to endure the problems that entail this life of luxury. :biggrin: |
Again, Thanks Tindo for a good thread.
The thoughts previously posted on the sad state of our nations leaders mirror my own. Reading Jared Diamond's book called Collapse. He describes global warming as only one of twelve different problems that are threatening humanity. Overpopulation is a big issue, but the real issue here is over consumption. |
Global Warming :scratchhead: ?
I 'm no scientist, but being an accountant, I understand data. Have a look at the earth's temperature graph for the last 65 million years Image:65 Myr Climate Change.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Is this graph upsidedown or just plain wrong:hmm ? With all the hoo-ha, wouldn't you expect record temperatures to be recorded in this century? Have a look at the data Hottest Temperature on Earth Are these facts totally out of date or what:hmm ? Weng |
I agree, great thread Tin! And really good points that people have brought out. One that hasn't been mentioned is food production. Intensive farming has meant that we cannot raise our food without loads of chemicals, pesticides, antibiotics, and hormones. With all of that stuff going into the food that we eat, no wonder allergies are becoming more of a problem for more and more people.
Overpopulation is a big issue, and it is contributing to overconsumption in a big way - as people in China and India achieve more economic growth, they want all of those things that they see in the movies and TV shows from the West. What kind of example are we (developed nations) setting? You know, I always chuckle when I hear friends in the US talk about the outrageous price of gasoline (petrol). Petrol here has been close to £1 a litre for quite some time and recently has increased so that it is now over £1 a litre. Now £1 = $2.09, and there are 4.5 litres in a US gallon - that makes the equivalent cost here $9.40 per gallon. For too long the West has funded over consumption with cheap (and/or easily available) credit, that is certainly now starting to bite us, with the US economy in a mess which has a knock-on effect around the world. There was a run on one of the banks here (Northern Rock) with people queuing up to get all of their saving out because the bank was having difficulties with the sub-prime mortage debt. Everything in today's world is interrelated - everything has a knock on effect - every action or inaction by every one of us makes a difference, and when everyone realises this, then we will start to see changes - if those changes aren't forced on us sooner. |
Hi weng
You hav to remember that Wikipedia is an encyclopedia that has no editorial control of the quality of the facts in Wikipedia. For all, For climate change facts, there is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change homepage, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Everything that they print have ALL members agreed on to be the consensus of todays knowledge in the field! Read this Mandate and Membership of the IPCC About IPCC so you can see what kind of organisation IPCC is before you neglect the facts. /Magnus |
Did anyone see John Stossel on 20/20 - I find this interesting - Stossel Takes on Gore/IPCC on 20/20 > Logan Utah, Cache Valley, Bridgerland, Local Community Forums, News and Information > Bridgerland, Logan Utah, Cache Valley Utah
Just thought I would throw this in here since the IPCC was mentioned. BTW - Good to see you Marco! Happy Belated Birthday :cheer: |
Links and search from Earth Observatory website from NASA
Earth Observatory Reference: Global Warming EO Newsroom: New Images - The Keeling Curve Earth Observatory Search: global warming |
Great links Marco! Thanks for contibuting them!
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Magnus,
Thank you for your thoughts. I have looked at the link, but cannot find any reference to global temperatures over millions of years. I fully accept what your point about Wikipedia, but from memory, all other long term global temperature graphs I have found appear much the same - i.e. that the earth is cooling. It isn't that I think global warming is not fact - I am not in any position to take a stance. However, when riding on a sine wave, one is always either going up or down, and predictions of a crash based on short term indicators can be totally misleading. Weng |
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Magnus, thanks for the important link. I hate that US news companies are not covering this important event in world history. Scientists from around the world have been meeting along with politicians to figure out what our next step is! Yet not a word from the US news. Hmm, yet the French radio station I listen talks about it. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Weng, here are some charts for us to ponder upon. http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/...arge/02.01.jpg http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/...arge/05.16.jpg http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/...arge/05.18.jpg http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/...arge/04.17.jpg this one shows we really messed up the earth http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/...arge/01.17.jpg |
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Hi Tindo,
Thank you for the links. I agree that the charts look bad, but these are incredibly short term charts when viewed against the life of the planet :hmm Remember... we are predicting the 'death' of the planet. As we know that the earth's temperature is vaguely cyclical, should we not even refer to where we are in the cycle before we get too excited? Weng |
I don't think that the prediction is the 'death of the planet' - I think the planet will survive with or without us. The point is that we will most certainly not be able to continue living the lifestyles we currently 'enjoy' - if we survive at all.
From the link that you posted, I followed the link to this graph: Image:Ice Age Temperature.png - Wikimedia Commons This, to me, clearly shows where we are on the cycle. And I think you are right, this is a cycle that occurs independent of anything that we (humans) do. However, I do think that our industrialisation and over-use of fossil fuels combined with increased deforestation has unbalanced the natural systems that regulate this cycle. |
The thing to realize is that its not about whether or not the earth has been warm before and therefore its normal. Its about under what conditions can today's flora and fauna can survive with. If global temperatures rise too quickly because we are throwing out greenhouse gases like no tomorrow, then the animals and plants really don't get much of a chance to adapt. Regardless of who is responsible, whether its normal cycles of the earth or humans throwing fossil fuels into the air, 1 thing is certain. Change is coming, and change generally means very bad things for human society. Civilization is not well equipped to survive change. Sea levels will still rise. Coastal cities (the most populous and important cities in the world are located on the sea shore) will flood. Life will change. And I say, hey, if we can do anything to slow down the pace of change, then lets do it! If by cutting down on our emissions we can slow down the progress of global warming to a manageable pace, then why not try? When faced with the choice of seeing Florida or New York City flooded within the next 50 years as opposed to them being flooded slowly over a period of a thousand years. What would you choose?
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We are all heading towards the end of life as we know it - of that, I have no doubt. Sadly, the root cause is one of over-population. We can all duck the issue and blame fossil fuels, etc. But our wildlife & forests continue to disappear because of deforestation & over-harvesting.
So, even if we turn carbon neutral, our increasing population will still fish out the sea, flatten all remaining jungle, and pollute the Earth :_( Perhaps we can all do our bit by not supporting charities that promote/prolong human life. Particularly in cases where the starving population has already outgrown & destroyed its habitat. Weng |
BBC NEWS
IPCC to warn of 'abrupt' warming By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News website, Valencia Climate change may bring "abrupt and irreversible" impacts, the UN's climate advisory panel is set to announce. Delegates to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agreed a summary of its landmark report during overnight negotiations here. Discussions were said to have been robust, with the US and other delegations keen to moderate language. The summary will be officially launched by UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon on Saturday. It brings together elements of the three reports that the Nobel Prize-winning IPCC has already released this year, on the science of climate change, impacts and adaptation, and options for mitigating the problem. Among its top-line conclusions are that climate change is "unequivocal", that humankind's emissions of greenhouse gases are more than 90% likely to be the main cause, and that impacts can be reduced at reasonable cost. IPCC PROJECTIONS Probable temperature rise between 1.8C and 4C Possible temperature rise between 1.1C and 6.4C Sea level most likely to rise by 28-43cm Arctic summer sea ice disappears in second half of century Increase in heatwaves very likely Increase in tropical storm intensity likely The synthesis summary being discussed here in Valencia strengthens the language of those earlier reports with a warning that climate change may bring "abrupt and irreversible" impacts. Such impacts could include the fast melting of glaciers and species extinctions. "Climate change is here, it's impacting our lives and our economies, and we need to do something about it," commented Hans Verolme, director of the climate change programme with the environmental group WWF. "After this report, there are no politicians left who can argue they don't know what climate change is or they don't know what to do about it." Local witnesses At a news conference, WWF presented testimonies from "climate change witnesses" in various parts of the world. Speaking by video link, Australian scientists and fishermen spoke of the changes they were seeing on the Great Barrier Reef. And Olav Mathis Eira, a Sami reindeer herder from Norway, said that his communities are seeing weather patterns unprecedented in their oral history. "Winter is one and a half months later than it used to be," he said. "We observed birds and insects that do not have a name in Sami." The 20-page IPCC synthesis summary is due to be accompanied by a longer, more detailed document, and discussions on that are continuing here. The findings will feed into the next round of negotiations on the UN climate convention and Kyoto Protocol, which open in Bali on 3 December. Story from BBC NEWS: BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | IPCC to warn of 'abrupt' warming Published: 2007/11/16 17:15:54 GMT © BBC MMVII |
Reading this thread it seems it is very one sided only a handful of people mentioning that there are many many many factors that affect weather. Let us not forget the gravity of the sun pulls us closer to the sun every day and the moon is drifting away slowly, and those are the two key elements in weather.. Oh and that same drift of the moon and the tides they form on the ocean slows the rotation of the earth a small degree which increases the length of a day by thousandths of a second every year. This all may seem small but I know I live in Ohio and when we get on the back side of the sun and the earth is not tilted in our direction it gets pretty stink cold and the opposite happens 6 months later. Don't get me wrong I think we do need to curb our pollution but most of us on this site grow orchids not native to our areas, that is not natural and ultimately wastes energy. They evolved to thrive in their enviroment not the one we build for them. I love the hundreds of orchids I keep but I understand to do so in Ohio means I have to use lots of energy to keep them warm and cozy when winter comes. As for those who think humans can't survive... wake up... we can keep people alive on machines, exchange body parts, oh and I almost forgot we did live through an Ice Age.. I thought that was a massive climate change that affected all flora and fauna.. I mean I haven't seen a wolly mammoth in Ohio in thousands of years.. Humans live because we adapt as do many other mammals. That is how we (mammals) survived the extinction of the dinosaurs.... which was yet another climatic event. My wife is currently midway though veterinary medicine school and we cherish the lives of animals quite a bit but none of us wants to abandon our lush lives to live were no other animal does so we don't upset it's habitat. I dare say that many of us here us mouse traps and antibacterial soaps, if you had termite you would probably call and exterminator, and of course pesticides on our orchids. All harmful to some creature.
That being said, I must say I'm not an expert nor should anyone here claim to be especially about weather, my local weather man is notoriously wrong all the time I don't know about you. I'm not going to hedge my bets that everything is going to be fine either. Personally I find it wasteful to use something that isn't renewable or free. I am always dreaming up new ways to make my greenhouse and home more efficient but unfortunately sometimes the costs to go green don't aways offset the savings. I grow a lot of my food not because of all the pesticides and "genetically altered" foodstuff but because it's cheap and I enjoy it. I would love to build a wind turbine to harness the energy of the eternal 30 mph winds that storm across my property from Oct to March (which happens the be the same time I have to heat the greenhouse). But they are well out of my budget to build one powerful enough to power 7000 watts of heaters all day. Nor would my wife appreciate the large size of such a creation. If I had all the money in the world I would buy the patent rights from dupot company of their new solar paint which can turn any surface into a solar panel. Those that speak of over population, as grim as it may be perhaps "global warming" is the way of the earth to rid itself of a large number of inhabitants bringing everything back into balance. By no means am I advocating the demise of the worlds flora and fauna population. We have more than enough food worldwide to feed everyone 30 times over, most of the US's fields lay fallow because the government pays them to be (I know because I live in the middle of hundreds of acres of fallow fields that were once corn). It's just politics, oddly people are equal, it seems those with the ability to lead often lack the knowledge to do so, and those with the knowledge rarely have the charisma. So I urge those that think they have the knowledge run for office and see how well you do. |
I agree, humans will survive. But I'd rather not be chosen by mere chance and happenstance to survive. I want to have an idea of whats going to happen, and right now, all the clues point to drastic and dramatic climate change that can reshape our society as we know it and the earth upon which we live. Is global warming our fault? Is it the natural? Or a mix of the two? I don't know. But hey, it can't hurt to stop polluting or at the very least stop importing foreign oil. I believe yes, its mostly our fault. If human society had not reached the industrial age, this earth would be 100 times more stable than it is now. I see most folks here believe that Global warming and climate change is real and its here (regardless of why). So, what do we do about it? Do we try to change it, or do we plan for future survival?
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But as I said earlier, I think it is better to be prepared for the worst - just in case. I think that the population of the earth will be drastically reduced to a more sustainable level and I think this will happen within my lifetime, so I want to do everything I can now to try to ensure I'm not one of those 'reduced' if I can at all help it. |
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I would agree that we are leaving out other major contributors to climate change. I happen to believe that we don't talk about them because in today's world it's not PC to say global warming may be caused by something other than CO2. Don't get me wrong I think it's a factor but I hardly think it's the ONLY factor. It's an admirable goal to achieve greener living, and I strive to do that where and when I can. I pay more for wind generated electricity, I recycle, I carpool. It makes me feel better but ultimately I don't think it will have a significant impact on the environment. Living green is expensive. Realistically who will be hardest hit by required worldwide green living? Developing third world nations that's who. Nations that can ill afford going totally solar. Most don't even have clean drinking water or basic medical care. People are still cooking over open campfires, and practicing slash and burn agriculture. If we mandate green living world wide how are those people going to survive?
The other recurring thought I keep seeing in this tread is that if we go green worldwide then the earth will become static and nothing will change. Absurd! The earth is a living planet and living things are NEVER static. Things will change no matter what we do. It's ridiculous even arrogant to think we can make the earth stop changing. What we really should be thinking about is how to adapt to a changing earth, because it surely will change with or without us. |
Those are great points Terri! Even if tomorrow we woke up and suddenly magically we all lived green, every one of us. Global warming would continue. Possibly unchecked. Hopefully however, if we do go green we can help the earth transition less drastically? The problem is we don't know how change happens. We don't know if change happens quickly naturally or slowly or both?
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I agree Tin! We really need to develop better science with regard to climate change. I think right now we are just guessing. It's a tough thing to study since changes are measured in millions of years!
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There is no guarantee that humans will survive future global weather conditions. In the past, there was a serious narrowing of the gene pool for humans due to climate change. Only a few thousand, perhaps, survived to perpetuate the species. The cause was probably a combination of warming and super volcanoes spewing huge amounts of pollution into the atmosphere.
We are warming the globe in what should be a cooling period for the planet. If the earth experiences a global event, it will make things much worse. Perhaps it won't happen in our lifetimes, but the Earth is constantly evolving and our species along with many others will either evolve or be exterminated. |
I agree there is no guarantees, however our distant human relatives did not possess the vast knowledge of physics and biology that we do today. I think we are all afraid of that we cannot control and currently weather is one of the few things that humans have not been able to conquer. It is that fear that makes us come to rash conclusions and quick solutions. I think pinning down global warming is like trying to find the cure for the common cold. There isn't one cure but many things we can do to try and prevent it from happening. Some of which make us feel better more than actually doing anything to help.
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