Evan
I am glad you are willing to experiment and might teach me something if you are willing to share your experience. Once, I took a Catt. to an orchid show table, at my society, growing in water culture in a vase with 4 six inch perfect blooms and only noted one person showing mild interest.
As far as timeline, I think you mentioned most of the variables including genetics. Perhaps I can add a little. If you have a plant that has a big enough food reserve in leaves and pseudobulbs, and showing a new lead (ie. its root nubbins have not yet been infected or already got used to growing dry) you will get bloom faster. I do have a Bl. Sunset Glory (Richard Meueller hybrid) that I guarantee to bloom within six months in water culture if given good light, the more the better. It grows like a weed, and I could sent you a division.
Unfortunately I am about to go on a trip and my response to posts will be erratic for a couple of weeks. In the mean-time, I have a lot of posts on my experience with orchids.
I would suggest on the second page, I believe.
Onc. Sharry Baby in water culture
for some additional info.