Business insights -- coinciding releases question

[katsucats]

I'm not sure where to post these kinds of topics so I hope this place works. As someone who spends way too much time browsing, I'd often notice coinciding releases from multiple vendors (e.g. down to the cultivars used in the crosses). For example, Seattle Orchids, Big Leaf, Norman's, Orchid Classics, and LAOC would all release Phal. amboinensis 'OK-18' x 'Nicole' in the same season. I'd assume that when this happens, the vendors are buying from producers in Taiwan, Thailand or Brazil (depending on the genera), growing them for a season or two, and reselling. For vendors that regularly outsource, this makes sense.

But sometimes the cross in question is not outsourced. For instance, at the beginning of this May, SVO released 2-4 flasks of Cl. dodsoniana 'SVO Biggest' x 'SVO' that I assume is in-house breeding. They all sold out within a couple days. A couple months later, LAOC released flasks of Cl. dodsoniana 'SVO Biggest' x 'SVO'. The flask I have from them is dated 7/15/2023.

So I think there are several possibilities.

1. LAOC bought retail releases of SVO flasks to resell. I think this is unlikely, since SVO sold these for $85 and LAOC is selling them for $80. Also, I've bought SVO flasks before and there typically wouldn't be enough to, for example, split into two flasks to resell.
2. Despite the cultivar names, these are actually produced at a third party facility that both vendors bought separate stock from. I think this is unlikely as well. I don't know if SVO uses a third party flasking service, but I'm pretty sure they breed their own releases.
3. LAOC is not actually selling 'SVO Biggest' x 'SVO' and in fact mislabeled the plants. Still unlikely, since they've been around for decades and seem like an honorable vendor.
4. LAOC got their hands on the two cultivars in question and made flasks separately some 4 years ago, which happened to release in the same year. I feel this is too coincidental, unless there is actually a lot of backroom discussions between orchid breeders.
5. SVO pre releases their plants to some other vendors in bulk before releasing them retail, with the stipulation that the they could be released at a later date after the retail release. I've never heard of SVO selling wholesale, but I'm not crossing out this possibility.

So my question is what would be the most likely possibility here (or something else)? I kind of doubt breeders share breeding stock and strategies behind the scenes, but maybe there is a private orchid industry Discord chat. Or perhaps vendors sell extra stock behind the scenes to diversify?

Note: Please don't tell me to email John or Fred about this. I've emailed John/LAOC about the source of their Cl. glaucoglossa and received a terse response, giving me the impression they don't want to talk about their business. I know some of you get great discussions from SVO, but they don't seem to want to answer any of my questions besides sales-related stuff as well. I assume they're too busy. I know some members of this board have been around industry circles, so I'm just wondering if anyone has opinions on this, out of curiosity.

[estación seca]

Just a guess... most places probably plant more flasks than they need / have space for the explanted seedlings, in case germination is poor. So if germination is good they sell extra flasks they can't accomodate. When trying to clear out space, somebody willing to take a lot of stock is going to get a good price.

[katsucats]

I would have guessed it would be something like this. The only sticking point is that SVO's release was extremely limited, with only if I recall 2-4 flasks sold for the cross in question. So if LAOC has more than that, which they do, they either had an arrangement before the retail sale, or more flasks were made after the sale, but were not added to the inventory.

In case you're wondering... I tried to buy the dodsoniana flask from SVO on the night a few hours after release, but was told it was sold out. I picked it up from LAOC recently instead. So I'm curious how that happened. I'm also curious, and trying to hypothesize, whether the other Catasetum flasks are sourced from SVO. Fred's new breeding stock for releases this season consists of the Ctsm. ivaneae, and his species releases also consists of the ivaneae, tigrinum and a pileatum alba among others. And wouldn't you know, that happens to be the flask releases from LAOC. The pileatum might be a coincidence, but ivaneae and tigrinum aren't exactly common.

[Ray]

I would lean toward that 5th possibility.

In some genera, a mature capsule can contain an immense number of viable seed that can be sown into a large number of mother flasks that might have tremendous germination rates, and that can lead to scads of daughter flasks.

Let’s say we produced 25 mother flasks that each became 25 daughter flasks - we’re talking paying for 650 flasks. Even at a “wholesale” price, that’s a lot of money. Then, what do you do with them when they arrive? Don’t forget this is just one cross, and guys like Fred are a lot more active than that!

If, on the other hand, you sell them to other commercial orchid houses, you offset your costs and reserve your capacity for other crosses.

Are the releases to the public coordinated, or are they just releasing stuff at approximately the same maturity levels? I sure don’t know, it either one is possible.

[Louis_W]

I agree with Ray. 5th option.

Fred gets the first release. I'm guessing he sells 70% of his plants within a week of the drop. Then, after he has satisfied his demand, in large part, other nurseries sell hundreds of plants with "SVO" written all over them and fred still makes a little money in the process.

[Roberta]

I know that Fred (SVO) selects the best, most vigorous plants to grow out for sale, typically only 150 or so. A lot of potentially-good seedlings get pitched. I'm sure he selects the flasks from which he gets those seedlings, that are the most vigorous. On a prolific cross, he often has far more flasks than he has room for. He definitely sells excess flasks. So if other vendors have the same cross, that's how they got them, they did not do the cross themselves. While Fred will select his "pick of the litter", certainly there will be great plants in the flasks he sells as well.

[katsucats]

Thanks to everyone who responded, especially Ray. I think that explanation makes the most sense. It's reasonable that Fred grows out the flasks that matured first, then sells excess flasks and releases whatever flasks are left over, or whichever the ordering is.

I guess the actionable insight here is: If you miss a release from a vendor, keep your eyes peeled in the coming weeks because another vendor might have it still.

[katsucats]

So it's true that the last time I asked this question, John pretty much said something along the lines that he "doesn't know" where his Cl. glaucoglossa came from. But this time I gave some details between the similarities of his catalog and SVO's and got a more interesting response. And I suppose it doesn't blow my mind that this is possible, but it does impress me.

Whenever I deflask, I pretty much assume all those tiny undeveloped plants are going to die and don't spend much effort trying to save them. But I guess LAOC is on a different level and spotted a business opportunity. They buy flasks from SVO, then grow them out for a little bit. I'm guessing they sell the larger plants as seedlings. They're about half SVO's pricing but nowhere near as large. What they told me is that they try to save all the protocorms, and so that's why they're able to still offer flasks of them. I would have thought the barely formed plants in flasks are genetically defective or lack vigor, but clearly LAOC is a better grower than I am because those protocorms are now larger than the plants in a flask I got from SVO directly. Though I do recall reading a blog from Dustin (of the Here But Not blog) saying the smaller plants in flasks aren't any different once they're grown out.

In any cases, I now have official confirmation that I was able to snag a Ctsm. ivaneae 'Aceitunitas Negras' x 'Purple Fantasy' and a Ctsm. pileatum v. alba 'Tuakau' x 'Snow White' FCC/AOS, though I regret that the tigrinum was sold during the time that I asked the question.

However, now we know that, if anyone is interested and doesn't mind spending a little time matching up catalogs, it's possible to get past SVO (and Jumbo Orchids) releases from LAOC. For example, if anyone missed out on that Ctsm. saccatum 'Brooklyn Botanical Gardens' FCC/AOS x 'Dark Wonder' last year, now's your chance!

[stonedragonfarms]

Interesting thread; it may also be the case that Fred is flasking out of house and additional replates are made available at the nursery wholesale level--most labs have language in their terms stating what happens in the event of overrun/overplates [the usual default is destruction of plant material, but it's left up to the hybridizer]; it could also be something as simple as nurseries swapping 'extra' flasks--John has a lot of interesting things that he's working with/on; it would be reasonable to assume that hybridizers would make their overrun available for trade to each other before selling them to the public [most hardcore Cymbidium hobbyists I know will 'shop' around their prime divisions to other hardcore hobbyists before offering them to the general public for sale...and most hybridizers I know fall in the hardcore spectrum somewhere... ]