Covid-19

[Dollythehun]

Not related directly, and recently made into a docudrama is "The Hot Zone." Chilling.

[Subrosa]

Originally Posted by Ray

John, I read elsewhere that SEPOS has officially been scrubbed.

Saw it on the show website. Such a shame.

[Ray]

Originally Posted by DirtyCoconuts

That’s a bummer ray. I assume you cheered double loud to make up

Of course!

The band consists of about 70 people, ranging in age from young teens through octogenarians - it is mostly retirees, after all, who finally have time for it. I know how much time and effort they put into rehearsals and practising at home, so I'm glad they at least got to perform it.

Things are getting more extreme - even church services and functions are closed now, including our choir practises.

[jmrathbun]

Reprinted from USA Today:

Friday, March 13, 2020

What this epidemiologist is telling her friends

Malia Jones

I study epidemics, and here are my thoughts on the new coronavirus.

First of all, we are going to see a tremendous increase in the number of cases of COVID-19. This is not entirely because of some new pattern in the spread of the disease, but rather due to a major change in the requirements to be tested.

Until recently, if you had a flu-like illness but had not recently traveled to China, Italy, South Korea or Iran, you could not be tested. Now, you can be tested if you are sick and have a doctor's order to be tested, so expect things to feel a lot more panicky all of a sudden.

Is the panic legitimate? Sort of. But this is not the zombie apocalypse.

The fatality rate of 30 deaths per 1,000 cases is probably a wild overestimate. (The denominator is almost certainly wrong because it is confirmed cases, and we only confirm cases when we test for them.) But even at 3 per 1,000 cases, this would be a big deal. By way of comparison, the death rate for seasonal influenza is between 1 and 2 in 1,000 cases. So, yeah, going from roughly 0x to 30x worse than a bad flu year? That's a problem.

Unlike flu, COVID-19 is not particularly dangerous for children. It is dangerous for older adults and those with lung conditions.

Our focus should be on slowing down the spread of this disease. Here is my advice:

? Wash your hands. I have started washing my hands each time I enter a new building and after being in shared spaces (classrooms especially), in addition to the standard practice of washing after using the bathroom and before eating. Use soap and water. Hand sanitizer also kills this virus, as does rubbing alcohol (the main ingredient in hand sanitizer).

? Don't pick your nose. Or put your fingers in your mouth, on your lips or in your eyes. Surface contact works like this: You touch something dirty ? like an elevator button. Virus sticks to your hands. Then you rub your eye. Then you touch your sandwich and put the sandwich in your mouth. Now there is virus in your eyes and mouth. You may be thinking, but I don't pick my nose because I am an adult. An observational study found that people working at a desk touched their eyes, nose or lips between three and 50 times an hour.

? If you're healthy, you don't need a face mask. Its function is to prevent spit from flying out of your mouth and landing on things when you cough or sneeze. Let the people who really need masks have them. Like doctors, nurses and people who are sick. The world is running low on masks. If everyone wants a mask so they can feel OK about keeping their Daytona Beach spring break plans and then hospitals in India can't buy them anymore, shame on us.

? Sanitize objects lots of people touch. Think door handles, keyboards and salad bar tongs. Best guesses are that the virus can live on surfaces for two to 48 hours, maybe even longer, depending on the surface, temperature and humidity. Many common household cleaning products will kill this virus.

However, white vinegar solution does not. You can make your own inexpensive antimicrobial spray by mixing 1 part household bleach to 50 parts cold tap water. Spray this on surfaces and leave for 10-30 minutes. Note: This is bleach. It will ruin your sofa.

? Social distancing. Limit face-toface meetings, especially large ones. Zoom is an excellent video conferencing option. Ask about the hygiene plan at your child's school. Keep your children home if they are sick. If you can telecommute, do that a little more. Avoid large gatherings of people if possible. If you attend group events and start to feel even a little bit sick within two to 14 days, you need to selfisolate immediately.

? If you are considering booking flights, get refundable tickets. Most trip insurance will not cover cancellations due to a pandemic. Look for "cancel for any reason" trip insurance. Considerations for risks related to the trip: How bad would it be if you got stuck where you are going for three to six weeks? How bad would it be to be isolated at home for two to three weeks upon your return? Do you have direct contact with people who are over 70 and/or have lung conditions? Are there cases in your area that you might be carrying to places and people?

? If you are sick, stay home. Your contributions to the world are really just not that important.

? If someone in your family gets sick, your family will almost certainly be isolated for two to three weeks. You could start stocking up essentials for that scenario, but don't run out and buy a years' worth of toilet paper. Again, not the apocalypse. Two weeks' worth of essential items is enough. Refill any prescriptions; check your supply of coffee, kitty litter and jigsaw puzzles.

? When public health works, the result is the least newsworthy thing ever: Nothing happens. If this all fizzles out and you start feeling like, "Wah, all that fuss for nothing?" ? send a thank you note to your department of public health officials for a job well done. They are working very, very hard right now.

? There are some positives here.

All this hand-washing could stop flu season in its tracks! We have an opportunity to reduce our global carbon footprint by telecommuting more, flying less and understanding where our stuff comes from. We can use this outbreak to think about the problems with our health care system.

There is a lot we don't yet know about this virus. It didn't even exist several months ago. Stay tuned; it is an evolving situation.

May the force be with you.

Malia Jones, assistant scientist at the Applied Population Laboratory at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, studies spatial patterns of infectious disease. This column first appeared in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

[WaterWitchin]

I read that article a few days back. Nice to have some rational articles to read, instead of some of the Chicken Little primers lately online.

[aliceinwl]

Originally Posted by Dollythehun

Not related directly, and recently made into a docudrama is "The Hot Zone." Chilling.

I’m not sure how the docudrama stacks up, but with the book Richard Preston’s The Hot Zone, it’s worth bearing in mind that he uses a lot of descriptive language and some of the more lurid descriptions should not be taken literally (I still think it’s a great read and listen if you do audiobooks).

Preston’s follow-up: Crisis in the Red Zone is much more tempered, it deals with the 2014 Ebola epidemic and is a really good read/listen. Ultimately ending the epidemic fell to individuals fundamentally altering their behavior. It also deals in depth with development of vaccines and treatments which I haven’t seen covered elsewhere, but is very informative.

For a really informative book about emerging infectious diseases Spillover by David Quammen is great. It chronicles various zoonotic diseases and explains in depth a lot of the science and terminology that experts are using when talking about COVID-19. It has a section on SARS which is very pertinent too. The audiobook narration is great: I’ve “inflicted” this one on all my friends and family that had to go on road trips with me last year and just about everyone wound up getting it for themselves so they could listen to it in its entirety.

[Fuerte Rav]

All of Spain has gone into a state of emergency today, citizen travel is restricted to essential only. Some airlines have stopped bringing passengers, just empty planes to take back holidaymakers already here. Bars and restaurants are closed.Schools have already been shut for a week. Shops that are non essential are closed, although hairdressers and dry cleaners are staying open - go figure? Markets closed. Public transport halved on our island.
My nearest supermarket (30 minute drive) was empty of everything useful when I called in on Friday afternoon, within 2 hours of the SOE being announced. I hadn't heard the SOE, I was just on my way home and planning on doing my normal weekly shop. I've got plenty in the cupboards and a full freezer so I'm challenging myself to not attempt to buy anything for the next couple of weeks. Loo rolls? - not a problem, that's what bidets are for
I'm going to treat this SOE (minimum 2 weeks) as a chance to catch up on lots that needs doing at home/in the garden. It will also give me time to hand pick through 2 cubic metres of lava chips to find enough with smoothish edges that I can use to repot a couple of my chids.

Stay safe everyone, look after yourselves and your families by using common sense and following official guidelines.

[rbarata]

Borders closed starting tomorrow. Only goods can go though. There's a high probability of a state of emergency declaration next week which means you can't stay outside unless for work, combustible, shoping essentials and pharmacies. Otherwise you'll be fined, or worse, detained.
In the last two days seems that people understood the problem and now most places are desert, nobody on the streets. The main problems are from turists which seems to don't care.

I've see some news about the US. It seems general public is not aware of what's coming. Lots of people shoping, street markets full of people...this was in Washington DC. Is it like that in other states?

[early]

Originally Posted by rbarata

I've see some news about the US. It seems general public is not aware of what's coming. Lots of people shoping, street markets full of people...this was in Washington DC. Is it like that in other states?

MSNBC. CNN report the news as it breaks, some more to the right stations that I have turned to have a split in reports. some are saying it is a Democrat conspiracy,
others are reporting it as it breaks, urging people to take precautions.

I shopped Thr morn. Got most of what I needed. Forgot Butter. Today I went on line to a super store that has shop now, pick up next day or sooner. I ordered every thing of foods I forgot or could not get at the walk in store. They did not have my butter. so I will use olive and canola and coconut oils.
I am proud of where I live. New Mexico. Gov. Lujan and mayors and the courts and schools have close things appropriately. Thr we had 3 cases. Friday 7, yesterday 3 more mostly travel related the new ones are community connected. Today total of 17 with three new ones very young in 20s and early 30s.
This is a very small state population wise, but we have lots of tourist that are coming for the natural beauty and museums. all the museums are close, bus travel may be soon, state parks open for day use only, We have lots of Casinos and several have closed. My good friend whose husband works at the air force base in IT is working at home. Worried about workers economy, but thank goodness I have social security and another small income. I don't feel like I have been crying out the Sky is Falling. just a chicken who has gone mostly to roost.

---------- Post added at 04:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:19 PM ----------

OH and we have several drive up testings, 2 hospitals in ABQ, talk of Walgreen, and superstore sites being opened soon, and out two major labs are pumping out test kits as fast as they can get the materials needed/ Navajo nation in NM AZ and Colo are taking precautions and as of yesterday no reported N/A cases. We have one case in ABQ from a fitness club

[aliceinwl]

Originally Posted by rbarata

I've see some news about the US. It seems general public is not aware of what's coming. Lots of people shoping, street markets full of people...this was in Washington DC. Is it like that in other states?

I think the response is still very uneven, there are certain areas taking it seriously others either don’t see it as a threat to them personally or are more concerned about the economic ramifications. There is still a lot of mixed messaging coming from political leaders too. Right now the county north of me has its first case of community spread, but I don’t think some of the people I know will take it seriously until people they know start dying or local hospitals are impacted: they’re relatively young and since it doesn’t pose a huge risk to them personally they think it’s a huge over reaction.