Covid-19

[Connie Star]

Given the decline in the stock market at the moment (another sign of hysteria) it might make sense to buy stock in toilet paper producers. It is bizarre.

And no Dollythehun, I don't consider myself elderly at 70, so yes, I would go to the show.

[Dollythehun]

My husband, "the Chief," did several Westpac tours of duty. Spam was very popular with the populace. We've already stocked up and of course, he bought spam (light). You'd be surprised at people's reactions to this fact. I'm right behind you, Connie, and in far better health than most half my age. Lol

[jmrathbun]

A ‘global pandemic’ that could go two ways

The coronavirus outbreak is not just an epidemic, it’s also a global pandemic, the World Health Organization declared on Wednesday.

The W.H.O. resisted using that term until now, for fear that people would take it to mean the virus was unstoppable and would give up trying to contain it. But the head of the W.H.O. said in Geneva that “all countries can still change the course of this pandemic,” so it’s vital to keep fighting its spread.

You can see why in a chart that has quickly become a defining image of the crisis. It shows two curves for the number of cases over time: A swift, steep peak if no protective measures are taken, and a flatter, more manageable slope if people wash their hands, limit travel and practice “social distancing.”

(see attachment)
What experts mean by “flattening the curve” of the epidemic.Drew Harris

“This graph is changing minds, and by changing minds, it is saving lives,” tweeted Carl Bergstrom, a professor of biology at the University of Washington.

Flattening the curve with mitigation “reduces the number of cases that are active at any given time, which in turn gives doctors, hospitals, police, schools and vaccine manufacturers time to prepare and respond, without becoming overwhelmed,” Drew Harris, a population health analyst at Thomas Jefferson University, told our colleague Siobhan Roberts.

Dr. Harris added: “Some commentators have argued for getting the outbreak over with quickly. That is a recipe for panic, unnecessary suffering and death. Slowing and spreading out the tidal wave of cases will save lives. Flattening the curve keeps society going.”

[aliceinwl]

I’m waffling about going to an orchid show too this year. My parents are 70+ so I’m worried about bringing something home. It’s shaping up to be more contagious than the flu and the mortality rate is looking to be 8% in the 70-79 age bracket (flu is 0.83% for those 65+). The other problem is the 20% who do develop serious illness can quickly overwhelm medical resources.

Reading reports from doctors in Italy, they have 12,000+ infections, 800+ deaths and 1,000+ in serious condition and in many hospitals there aren’t enough ventilators to go around. In New York they’ve now traced 50+ infections to a single individual and in Washington looking at viral genetics the outbreak there looks to have started with one person. Right now we’re behind places like Italy, but our trajectory is similar.

In a really mild flu year in the U.S. there are around 9 million infections. If COVID 19 has similar spread that’s 180,000 deaths.

[sbrofio]

Hi guys, I'm writing from northern Italy. consider that: 1) some people are asymptomatic therefore they spread the virus without knowing it 2) the virus makes no distinctions of age and is even more dangerous for people who are undepressed 3) patient 1 is a healthy and strong 38-year-old man but has spent 18 days in intensive care intubated (to say ..) 4) the virus resists days on the external surfaces (door handles for example) 5) does not seem but in everyday life you come into contact with hundreds of people, so imagine in one show 6) considering your health and work system which are different from ours;
Having said all this, I would cancel any shows or conferences and limit the trips to the essential ones. Even the occasions of gathering (aperitifs, parties, etc) would be better to avoid them. Wash your hands very well and often. I know, and I say it and I live in first person, it is a sacrifice, but it serves to remain healthy, alive, both you and the people you care about and others in general.
Stay safe, really, please. Learn from our lesson without facing the same dangers.

[WaterWitchin]

Was trying to avoid getting on my own soapbox, and as usual cannot stand staying quiet any longer. It's a particular part of my personality I consider a flaw. I'm working on it, even if it doesn't always appear that way.

I think personal responsibility is key in any situation, not just a pandemic situation. Yes, we wash our hands, cough or sneeze into our elbow, don't pick our nose, keep dirty hands off our face, stay home when we're sick... how many have broken that rule? It's personal responsibility to ALWAYS be doing those things for the greater good, whether you care about your own health or not.

When WHO or the CDC or our government starts telling humans to take more precautions, such as not shaking hands, avoiding public areas unless necessary, personal responsibility dictates we should do so.

So if the conditions dictate it, stock up on some food so you're not at the grocery store all the time, don't attend orchid shows, a St Paddy's parade, a cruise, a local bar or restaurant. Oh Boo Hoo! Me, me, me, my wants and needs. Make it into a big issue, instead of the short term minor inconvenience it should be. That's personal responsibility for the greater good of ALL.

No one wants to be inconvenienced for a period of time. Yes, a pandemic can change one's lifestyle for a month or three. If everyone had the attitude of let's do what we can to get this over with, it would be over in a shorter time frame. Folks don't want to be personally inconvenienced for a short period of time. It's like the teenager that thinks they are invincible... it could happen to other people, but not ME. Thus the period of inconvenience becomes longer and chaotic, and much more inconvenient than anticipated.

I'm one of those who believes when it's my time, it's my time. It doesn't mean I want to run around spreading illness onto someone accidentally and make their life miserable. I also wouldn't want to be the vehicle used to spread around something that might BE someone else's time to die.

What caused the Great Depression? A myriad of different things, plus chaos and hysteric reactions and a general feeling of entitlement that sent us down the rabbit hole for quite a few years. Personally, I'd rather pass on that scenario.

---------- Post added at 09:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:56 AM ----------

And a PS to my Dolly... I would pet them and call them pretty names. I could never grow them as well as do you... and I'm hoping that day is a loooooong time away. XOXO

[Mountaineer370]

Well said, WW. This virus is serious, that's a fact, and I'm taking it seriously, and I certainly hope others are, too. It's also a fact that some of us have a more relaxed, laid-back personality and are taking all of this in stride, and others have a tendency toward high anxiety, and for those types, these are very stressful times.

No, I'm not hoarding. Yes, I have stocked up on some items. This is simply so that I can reduce the number of trips I have to make to the store. Between my husband and I, we typically are at the store three or four times a week. We're trying to cut way back on that. Several (non-orchid) clubs I belong to have canceled upcoming events. I haven't heard anything from my orchid society yet about our festival scheduled for the weekend after next. I will not be going to that or any other orchid show this spring. I did get in one show a month or so ago, so that will have to hold me.

I wish all of you the very best. May everyone stay healthy!

[jmrathbun]

The North Carolina Arboretum, under guidance from the University of North Carolina, just cancelled their big show scheduled in early April. Sad for the Western North Carolina Orchid Society, but the right thing to do IMO.

As for my personal preparations, my wife and I live in a fairly remote area and are in our early 70s. I'm a retired physician and she's a mostly-retired minister. She's at choir practice right now but has stopped leading her Bible Study class and promised she'll drop in-person participation as soon as we have the first case locally. She also got the choir to rehearse in a larger room and got the most impulsive member moved away from her in the line-up.

We went to lunch today near Asheville, and made good use of the hand sanitizers provided. I signed the check with my own pen, not the one provided by the waiter. I plan to carry my own pen continuously from now on so I can sign things without using a community pen.

I've sadly omitted my usual season ticket purchases for local cultural events over the summer, and was between volunteer activities as of the beginning of the year, so I can mostly stay home. I'm more at risk than my wife due to my medical history. I've been using some of my time to issue warnings in three nearby cities both through op-eds and personal communications with business owner, not to mention recent online contacts with AOS, the Arboretum, WNCOS, this board, and others.

As far as food, water, medications and other necessities, I think we could endure a three-month session off the grid. I'm hopeful it won't get that bad, but I'm old enough to remember treating some survivors of 1918 so I'm rather sensitive to the implications of Covid-19.

Anybody who has money in the markets will be feeling some anxiety at present. Since 1/3 of my savings are in 5-year TIPS and I have no debt and a good cash position, I'm able to sleep at night, mostly.

I do get plagued by thoughts about how I would carry on without my beloved of more than fifty years, but she's more likely to be missing me than the other way around. Certainly it's a good time to have estate plans up to date.

Best of luck to all you fine orchid-lovers!

[Mountaineer370]

And less than an hour after my post above, I've been notified that the Ann Arbor Orchid Festival, which was scheduled to be held at Matthaei Botanical Gardens (University of Michigan), on March 21 and 22, has been canceled.

[Dollythehun]

Well, Cheri, I won't be seeing you or Lynne this year then. Sad, but prudent.

Common sense precautions, care for our neighbors, and a calm mind, wise advise.

Connie Star, I just finished three hours of pruning, raking, and cutting back perennials, today I do feel elderly. Lol