Could be either, but I suspect spike. You'll just have to be patient! A note.... Oncidium spikes tend to be slooowww... they will tease you for months before blooming.
so can we "generalize" and say the following ?
1. if a growth is NOT between the leaves it's definitely a new growth and never a spike
2. if a growth is between the leaves it could be either a spike OR new growht
1. if a growth is NOT between the leaves it's definitely a new growth and never a spike
2. if a growth is between the leaves it could be either a spike OR new growht
thanks!
Generalizations about orchids are wrong more often than they are right. Different types have different habits. Sometimes one can tell the difference between a spike and growth in that growths as they develop tend to start to flatten at the top while spikes tend to retain their pointy shape. But at the early stages, these differences may not be so obvious. The only "generalization" that I'd take to the bank is "Patience, patience, patience..." Orchids teach patience. The plant will tell you soon enough what it doing.