Economics anyone?

[shakkai]

Originally Posted by goodgollymissmolly

Shannan, most of what you say I certainly agree with. However, I see your daylily example differently than you do. Unlike Hosta collectors, daylily collectors stay away from tissue cultured plants because of the poor flower replications on the market. I could argue all day about why that is, but I'll skip that on an orchid forum.

What you did not say was that new daylily introductions sell for $100-300 US. I've paid $500 for tetraploid conversions of several daylily cultivars. While I realize that orchid species/hybrids can sell for $1000's or even tens of $1000's those are rare. $150 daylilies are the norm.

I think TC daylilies have really impacted the US market for older (3 years or more) daylily clones. That secondary market helped to support hybridizers in the past. Certainly TC (mericlone) orchids have both reduced prices and made orchids available to the masses. The replication question is less important because the orchids themselves vary widely in the wild. If the only orchid market was hybrids (as it is in daylilies) then the faithful reproduction would be more important to orchid people. Hostas are no different. TC Hostas dominate the market, individual clones vary so widely in different climates and cultures that minor TC differences are ignored.

Why would a very successful orchid/landscape person like Frank Smith jump into daylilies....because prices are astronomical that why. The major daylily hybridizers were/are family businesses and they do very well. Unfortunately the involvement of major enterprises like Krull-Smith will be a negative influence for the innovation in daylilies because his marketing power will kill off the innovators. But that barn door is open now and there's no going back.

It's true as you say that sometimes people start out with pot plants and become avid orchid hobbyists. It is also true that many folks never go any further. That's fine as long they don't jump my case because I spend a few bucks on my hobby.

BTW, I never said that people should not brag about their acquisitions on this or any forum. I simply said that I do not. That was to question why Jo Ann jumped me for using the word "snob" which I thought was used in a reasonable context, but no one ever jumped others for bragging about their acquisitions. Hell, I don't know. How are things in England? They pretty much stink in the US. A bunch of people who couldn't afford houses bought one and now they blame everyone but themselves. And we apparently have the three stooges running for president.

I have to dash out of the house for a little while, but I wanted to start this thread off so that I could refer to it in the other post (whence this came).

Things in England are very quickly going the way they are in the US. Home repossessions are at their highest level since the crash in '91. However, I think I wouldn't want to move back to the US anytime soon, as it looks like it will get much worse there. I'd really like to discuss this bit more, as I think there are some interesting things to learn about the present global economic situation. Hopefully, we can talk more about that later.

As for the daylilies, I've been told by some friends who are genetics researchers that they (whoever 'they' are that are doing the micro-propagation) aren't using the correct techniques or the correct meristem cells to begin with, and that is why the cloned plants haven't been good reproductions of the original.

That said, look what happened with Golden Peoker - the variations/mutations that came out of the cloning have really had a positive impact, I think. And I completely agree with your point about the natural variation in both species and hybrid grexes making it not so important to produce exact replicas of the flowers.

Regardless of whether daylilies are TC'd or not, the price for introductions that are more than a few years old really plummets. If you get $40 for something that is a few years old, you're lucky. Even though when introduced, yes, it was upwards of $150. I'm fortunate in my preference for spider and unusual form daylilies. First, they tend to hold their value better. Second, when I started collecting them, diploids were far ahead in this area, so I haven't had to pay the premium for conversions (or for that matter, just the expensive Florida Tets!).

[goodgollymissmolly]

Smart of you to start this off topic thread before I got in trouble on the other one, Thanks!

Are you a US citizen living in England or an English citizen who has lived in the US? I recognize you from the spider robin.

You did the Ned Roberts website. I didn't keep up with that very closely because I thought Ned was a very combative character that I didn't like very well......example his chapter in the spider book that blasted some people who I consider more important than Ned and Betty. Anyway he did some interesting stuff. Tet Desert Icicle is one of the conversions I paid $500 to get. It has survived but I haven't gotten any spectacular things from it.

Cj seems about as cynical about the current White House occupant as I am. Remember they are reading this stuff. Expect a tax audit any time now!! It's truly a new world since these silly Bas***ds came along. ....OK how much more do I owe?

Daylilies are suffering here from the cost and work required to fight rust. I have about 450, but have not bought one for 18 months. I've also got about 300 hostas, but I lost about 50 to a horrible spring cold spell last year and it kind of took the interest out of it.

As for the political situation in the US....God help us!! Obviously the current occupants of the executive branch can not leave soon enough for me. $3 billion a week in Iraq is pretty stupid from my perspective, but I'm always amazed by the opinions I hear from others so I guess some people think its OK to police the world as you see fit.

None of the current presidential candidates is worth having. I guess the job is so crooked and frustrating that nobody really wants it except people with massive self serving ambitions.

Thanks again

[shakkai]

I am a US citizen living in England. Yes, I did the Ned Roberts site. I was new to hybridising and Ned was one of the only well known hybridisers to take the time to give me some pointers on what I should be looking for in potential crosses and recommendations on what plants I could use to achieve my goals. For that, I was very thankful, as I feel like my feet were set on the right path. I also think that it is important to try to preserve information before it is lost - and doing the site seemed like the perfect opportunity to help do a bit of that.

I still struggle to get my head around the dip gene pool, I couldn't contemplate twice the number of variations. I also, personally, think that many of the tet spiders have lost the elegance and delicacy of the dip spiders.

Do you think that the downhill economic situation is going to make a big impact on the willingness of so many people to pay the new intro price for daylilies? (This can be extrapolated to the general gardening market...)

Here in England, prices for daylilies - and most plants, in fact - are rather less pricey. The most expensive ones from specialist daylily nurseries seem to have a £25 upper limit.

As for general economic climate - I'm sure you heard about Northern Rock over here? On top of that, house prices have been going through the roof the past few years. Many people would have had to take out mortgages of 4 to 8 times their salary just to be able to get on to the property ladder... and the banks were willing to lend mortgages at 4 to 8 times a person's yearly salary!! That just amazes me! I'm sure there were quite a lot of people just struggling with repayments as they were. If interest rates were to go up, they would have no chance.

When we bought our house, we made sure that we didn't borrow more than we could comfortably repay even if interest rates more than doubled. We are fortunate, now, that we've been able to pay off our mortgage and have no outstanding debts whatsoever. More than anything else, that is a result of planning and watching our pennies, no spending any more on credit cards than we can afford to pay off at the end of the month so we don't pay any interest, and like I said, paying our mortgage off as quickly as possible so that there was less interest to pay on that as well.

As for the political situation in the US, I've not lived in the US since 2000, so I've missed the present administrations daily foibles. I don't think I would want to move back any time soon, as I think that the damage that has been done will take a very long time to put to right. Possibly not even within my lifetime! I do not envy anyone taking over the reins at this time, as they will be digging themselves out for their entire first term. Not something that would inspire many people to take up the job!

[goodgollymissmolly]

The economic situation is clearly taking a toll on the daylily business and I think gardening in general. I'm starting to see more and more new intros at $75 to $100 and less at $200 and above. It's hard to separate the effects of the economy and the effects of rust disgust. Both are an issue south of Tennessee and rust is still a problem everywhere for buyers of southern plants. The knowledge and cost required to use the fungicides properly as prophylactic treatments is just lost on most people. They wait until they get rust and then complain about fungicides just "suppressing" it. It being sporolation. No matter how many times it is explained that fungicides prevent fungus not cure it, the explanation just goes into the ozone. The truth is that people don't want to pay $400 per pound for Heritage or $300 a gallon for other products and spend all year spraying daylilies. I do it, but I do not want to and will probably quit now that I have a new greenhouse full of orchids.

Seminar attendance is rapidly declining to levels that won't pay the fixed costs. That's both a gasoline and declining interest issue.

From what I read this summers National convention is not filling up. AHS membership has definitely declined, but no one talks about the actual numbers so I don't know what they are. (I think all gardening groups are also declining.) The American Hosta Society is dangerously down. I think AOS is also down, but I'm not as familiar with its historical membership totals.

We also have a paid off mortgage and only use credit cards for internet purchases and pay off each month. Unfortunately the stock market isn't too good so our savings are down, but we keep two years worth in cash so hopefully it will come back before I need to sell anything at a reduced price.

I just saw a piece on CNN that said there are more "payday" loan locations in the US than all the McDonalds, Burger Kings, and Wendys combined. That's pretty shocking.

The Bush administration has ended the era of American values and reputation around the world. It will never recover in my opinion. Just like the Soviet Union, the United States spent itself into ruin by trying to rule the planet. The party is over I think.
It's too bad, it was great place and it's amazing that one president could end it all. In many ways it is wrong to blame it all on poor George. Ronald Reagan started it with his deregulation of everything. Bill Clinton gave away all our jobs with his globalization horses**t and Georgie has tried to outdo both of them.

I don't think it's coming back. I spent a month on business in Brazil in 1991 and loved it. I briefly thought about trying to get IBM to give me an assignment there. If I had I probably would not have returned. I have heard two young people say if McCain wins this election they plan to move out of the US. Will they? Is that a common thought among young people? I'm not sure, but it sure is a new thought pattern versus the past. Stay where you are.

[Ross]

Originally Posted by goodgollymissmolly

I have heard two young people say if McCain wins this election they plan to move out of the US. Will they? Is that a common thought among young people? I'm not sure, but it sure is a new thought pattern versus the past. Stay where you are.

I wasn't going to go here at first, but you baited me in! McKain runs on a tainted ticket. Notice my Sig Tag, I know of this guy before he ran. I know of this guy when he was supposedly a war hero. I know of this guy when he sold out his country for special treatment in a North VietNam prison. None of this makes it to the press because of the the "pressure" to avoid controversy. If one claims to have "evidence" then the Feds jump on you.

[cowboy51278]

to be frank about the entire situation, things are really bad here. they are not going to get better anytime soon. we have had one bad administration after another. mckain is just as crooked as the existing administration and I don't beleive that either hillary or obama is qualified to bail us out of this. i can't speak for all the young people in this country. but as for myself, if mckain gets the big chair then my partner and i will seriously think of moving out of the country. the topic has come up on more than one occasion in the last few months. its really too bad that things have turned out the way that they have.

[shakkai]

Wow! What a mess!! When you look at things from this perspective, it seems a bit silly to worry about the renaming of some orchids, or the latest intros from daylily hybridisers!

Thanks for your input, Ross! I think it is important that people share this kind of information - since it seems that its not being shared elsewhere!

I think it is true that membership in garden societies/gardening clubs is down in general. Here they keep telling us that people just don't want to garden any more - or at least that is the excuse developers use here to be able to put 5 houses with gardens smaller than bedrooms on a plot that used to have one house in a nice sized garden!!

No one talks very much about rust that I can see... I think you're right in that no one wants to be bothered and would rather just keep their heads in the sand in the vain hope that if they ignore it, it will go away. Weird, eh? I import daylilies from the US, but I've only done so from northern growers and fortunately have never had to experience rust. I do know that it is something that is checked for specifically by the inspectors here in any shipments that come in.

But IBM stock is doing pretty well at the moment! My husband is ultra conservative financially, so the only thing we have invested in the stock market is my pension - which he figures we cannot count on at all! Absolutely everything that I have read about preparing for economic disasters - or even just hard times - is do not be in debt. In any way, in any form. This is probably the single best bit of advice anyone can ever follow.

The differences between here and the US are very odd. Our petrol (gas) is taxed to the hilt, which means we're now paying £1.06 per litre (4.5 litres to the gallon * the current exchange rate of $1.98 to the pound = $9.44 per gallon), the costs of housing is way higher, yet even with the recent rise in utility prices, we still pay less in gas and electric than we did in the US. We also don't have to buy health insurance - which would be a big expense if we moved back to the US. But the clincher is education. My daughter will be able to go to any College/University that she gets accepted to and we'll pay just slightly over £3000 per year for her to go.

Paul, just saw your post as well! I didn't realise that people were actually thinking like this... But it is another piece of the puzzle to fit in. Now I'm wondering too if this is a common thought among the younger generation?

[Ross]

Originally Posted by shakkai

Our petrol (gas) is taxed to the hilt, which means we're now paying £1.06 per litre (4.5 litres to the gallon * the current exchange rate of $1.98 to the pound = $9.44 per gallon)

Very interesting. I just watched the movie "I Am Legend" with Will Smith and one scene showed gasoline at over $9.00 a gallon in NYC. I think we (U.S.) are headed there pretty soon as well.

[Orchidflowerchild]

Speaking as a member of "the younger generation," I have a lot of angst and bitterness about the current administration, but I'm not going anywhere. Maybe I'm a little overoptimistic, but I figure it'll all balance out in the end. Even if it doesn't, I know how to kill and grow my own food, so I'll be fine. LOL I am and always have been a swing voter, because I grew up in a house where one side of the family are all yellow-dog democrats and the other second-coming republicans. As a result, I'm bitter about the parties, period. I end up voting libertarian, most of the time, and electability be damned. At least I know that my vote was cast for the person I actually agree with. The last republican I would've voted for with a clear conscience was Nelson Rockefeller.

I'm voting Hillary, this year, but only because I figue, of the chuckleheads we have to choose from, she has the dual necessities (in my mind) of experience in the political system (let's face it, Obama is just gonna piss off the establishment of BOTH parties), and never having said anything about a hundred years' war.

Meanwhile, I love that McCain is reeling it back, now, and saying "well, I didn't mean in COMBAT!" I have angst about the fact that we still have people in Korea, let alone the idea of a hundred years in the current clusterf*ck. My issue with McCain, even before he opend his mouth, is that he cannot stick to one platform. He changes his positions with the polls. Remember 2000? He was the moderate. Where'd that go? Now he's pandering to the conservative base, when eight years ago he was all about the centrist swing voters.

But then, who knows, I might just get so disgusted by the whole thing that I write in Whoopi Goldberg.

-Cj

[Phantasm]

I am not young by any means but agree with much of what CJ says. McBush is just an extention of The Decider regarding the war and the economy. He's scary at best. Hilary is smart but too calculated and too prone to dirty politics. I like her policies but not the way she approaches the world, and you get Bill in conjunction with her. Obama is also very smart and inspirational to boot. His policies are very close to Clinton so he's my choice. I'm ready for someone that is positive and smart, and also has vision for the future. He's the only one with an inkling for the future.....
Needless to say, I will vote for anyone that isn't a Republican. Enough is enough.