Global meltdown

[isurus79]

Originally Posted by Tindomul

Ahh, but global warming is so much more than a few melting glaciers. Its an increase in diseases like malaria, loss of biodiversity, its a ...why bother saving the forest if its gonna become a dessert...issue, and loss of potable drinking water (have you any idea how many people depend on glaciers as a source of drinking water?), loss of food crop due to loss of water and adequate habitat, increase in pests, and who knows what else we cannot yet foresee.
I agree Steve, we should put things like reducing pollution, and stopping the destruction of the forests first, and stop over fishing, first. If we can't solve these problems, then what hope have we in the face of global warming (regardless of whether it be caused by man or nature).

One thing I've come to realize since starting this thread is that it doesn't really matter any more what is causing global warming. If it happens (and I see it happening now, every day, every year, you can't deny it!) then we will suffer. I get the feeling that many of the people who have taken the time to read this thread and the articles I've posted think that by proving man innocent of global warming makes everything ok. OK, lets say we are innocent, and we can't make a dent on the earths climate. And its all the sun doing its thing heating us up. The end result is the same, most of the worlds major cities will be underwater etc....

I just dont see how biodiversity will automatically dissapear if the world gets warmer. I see a change in species composition, but not a loss (with the exception of extreme cold loving organisms). An increase in pests would only be in more temperate climates where the "mosquito and tick season" would be longer, but then that means there is a longer growing season and therefore the potential for more food, rather than less. Fresh water wont dissapear because its warmer, however, its distribution will probably change. All I see from global warming is a change in the earth's composition and distribution of species and a change in the world's weather patterns. Mankind is absolutely petrified of change and the unknown and I see that fear manifesting itself with global warming. We really dont know what will happen or even if it really is happening, and that scares the bjeebers out of most people. That manifestation of the fear of the unknown drives people to come up with all sorts of doomsday scenarios. Why do people focus on glacier melt, increased pests, increased diseaese and famine? Because the fear of the unknown causes people to imagine worst case scenarios. They never tell you about traditionally dry places getting wetter (such as some place in sub-saharan Africa), you never hear about the potential for a longer growing season in temperate areas, or even the fact that hurricanes are more likely to become less intense with a warmer climate (this is because hurricanes -as all wind- is created as the earth tries to balance the difference in temperature between the hot equatorial regions of the planet and the cold polar regions. As the equatorial regions of our planet are not expected to heat up nearly as much as the polar regions, this heat inequality that causes hurricanes will diminish, thus less intense storms). That is of course, IF global warming really is happening!! Again, I want to reiterate that I think environmental causes are one of the most important causes out there, but Im not sold on global warming, simply because there are too many dissenting scientists and not enough knowledge about the climate to fully forecast next weeks weather, much less anything in the next 100 or so years. Not to mention the fact that Im one of those people who when I hear someone yelling at me, I stop listening (not that anyone here on the board is yelling!!!! I enjoy these discussions very much!!) and global warming proponents, in my mind are yelling at the top of their lungs and are plugging their ears when presented with contrary evidence. Im CONSTANTLY looking for concrete evidence to prove my dissention wrong. I WANT to believe and but I have not heard one argument to sway me otherwise. There are simply too many unknown variables to come to a definitive conclusion and/or scenario for the future, especially one as bleak as is usually presented. Im simply not sold on the idea of the earth turning into a desert wasteland full of pests and hurricanes. It just doesnt add up. I would love to believe, but I dont... Wow, I really need to get back to my homework!! I do, however, look forward to further discussions on this important topic!!

[Tindomul]

Thanks for you input. It gives me a lot to think about. I by no means have my mind set. Its one of the reasons I started this thread. And with this thread I have learned a lot. However, keep in mind that most species are adapted to living at 57 degrees Fahrenheit, 15 or so degrees centigrade. Most of the worlds biodiversity is located in the geographical locations most vulnerable to climate change. That is, the mountains in the tropics, where there is no where to go but up, literally. And as the low land species crowd out the mountain species, we loose big time.
In the perspective of the geological time scale, global warming is not such a bad thing. The earth will warm up, new species will evolve, old species will adapt and life will go on. But in the time limit of our lifespan, I foresee environmental chaos as life struggles to adapt to environmental change that is going at to quick a pace.
Now, as for a longer growing period. I wish it were that simple. Then global warming would be Kool.
But I don't think it is. What we will see is crazy weather, unpredictable droughts with extended summers. The summer thunderstorms we have been seeing here in NYC for the last 2 summers have been out of this world! Basically bringing the city to a stand still. And thats just rain! Too much rain.
Arid places of the world that are going to be getting more water, will undoubtedly be hard pressed to deal with the ensuing flooding. Along with dry places getting wet (which could be disastrous in the short term at least , geological timescale again) and wet places getting dry, which would be really really bad.
As for the hurricanes, I'm willing to bet that it would take a long time (short geological time) before the temps of the earth even out enough to reduce the intensity of hurricanes. In the mean time, during the transition period to a warmer earth, we would I bet, be seeing some really nasty storms.

I guess you could say I am a firm believer in global warming. I don't know what is causing it though.

[isurus79]

Originally Posted by Tindomul

Now, as for a longer growing period. I wish it were that simple. Then global warming would be Kool.
But I don't think it is. What we will see is crazy weather, unpredictable droughts with extended summers. The summer thunderstorms we have been seeing here in NYC for the last 2 summers have been out of this world! Basically bringing the city to a stand still. And thats just rain! Too much rain.

I hear that a lot, but in my 28 years on this planet there has not been one single year that I can recall that did not have excessive rain, crazy weather, unpredictable droughts and wierd summers!! I lived in Ontario Canada for a long time and we would have "Indian Summers" all the time!! That was in the '80's! My parents never thought twice about it because it was common!! Same goes for strangely cold winters, excessive rain, lack of rain hot summers, etc. It always been there! Now if you saw flooding in NYC (which is a place Ive always wanted to check out but never have!) for 10 summers in a row, I might think there was somthing to it. But 2 summers in a row? It doesnt even register on my radar as unusual! It seems like now-a-days, whenever the weather does something "unusual" global warming is automatically the culprit. Im pretty sure "wierd" weather phenomenon have been occuring as long there was weather phenomenon happening!!

Originally Posted by Tindomul

As for the hurricanes, I'm willing to bet that it would take a long time (short geological time) before the temps of the earth even out enough to reduce the intensity of hurricanes. In the mean time, during the transition period to a warmer earth, we would I bet, be seeing some really nasty storms.

No!! The transition period would see a gradual lessening of storm intensity! If the end point (aka a much warmer earth) were to have reduced storminess, why would it get worse until one day its better? Nasty storms will always be around. Right now the Atlantic is in an inter-decadal weather shift where-by hurricanes intesify for a period of time. The Atlantic just came out of a period of low hurricane activity and has been entering this period of higher frequency hurricanes for a few years now. This is one of the few longer term weather phenemenon that are pretty well documented, yet people still try to blame hurricanes Katrina, Rita, et al. on global warming!

Originally Posted by Tindomul

Arid places of the world that are going to be getting more water, will undoubtedly be hard pressed to deal with the ensuing flooding. Along with dry places getting wet (which could be disastrous in the short term at least , geological timescale again) and wet places getting dry, which would be really really bad.

I doubt people in arid regions will object to more rain! Even if they experience flooding, they will quickly adapt and their harvests will improve, thus creating a better life for the local residents. People in wet regions getting less rain will probably have more to lose, however, as their crops fail. Either way, people will adapt as they always have and always will have to because of the constant rythm and flow of the earth's climate and species composition! With that, I have to run to class!

[Tindomul]

Originally Posted by isurus79

I hear that a lot, but in my 28 years on this planet there has not been one single year that I can recall that did not have excessive rain, crazy weather, unpredictable droughts and wierd summers!! I lived in Ontario Canada for a long time and we would have "Indian Summers" all the time!! That was in the '80's! My parents never thought twice about it because it was common!! Same goes for strangely cold winters, excessive rain, lack of rain hot summers, etc. It always been there! Now if you saw flooding in NYC (which is a place Ive always wanted to check out but never have!) for 10 summers in a row, I might think there was somthing to it. But 2 summers in a row? It doesnt even register on my radar as unusual! It seems like now-a-days, whenever the weather does something "unusual" global warming is automatically the culprit. Im pretty sure "wierd" weather phenomenon have been occuring as long there was weather phenomenon happening!!

Well just have to wait and count the summers. Hehe.

Originally Posted by isurus79

No!! The transition period would see a gradual lessening of storm intensity! If the end point (aka a much warmer earth) were to have reduced storminess, why would it get worse until one day its better? Nasty storms will always be around. Right now the Atlantic is in an inter-decadal weather shift where-by hurricanes intesify for a period of time. The Atlantic just came out of a period of low hurricane activity and has been entering this period of higher frequency hurricanes for a few years now. This is one of the few longer term weather phenemenon that are pretty well documented, yet people still try to blame hurricanes Katrina, Rita, et al. on global warming!

I would imagine the transition period to be rocky as the earth struggles to get to a new equilibrium. I doubt very much that the equator would not experience an increase in warmth as its the place that gets the most direct rays, actually about 10 degrees latitude to the north of the equator.

[isurus79]

Originally Posted by Tindomul

Well just have to wait and count the summers. Hehe.

lol Hopefully you dont get anymore flooding rains!! I would hate to be proven wrong with NYC under 5 feet of water!!

Originally Posted by Tindomul

I would imagine the transition period to be rocky as the earth struggles to get to a new equilibrium. I doubt very much that the equator would not experience an increase in warmth as its the place that gets the most direct rays, actually about 10 degrees latitude to the north of the equator.

The thing is, the earth is never in an "equilibrium." To me, this concept is a complete myth. The earth's systems are in a constant state of flux. Just look at the climatological records: there are no flatlines on any indictors anywhere!! Whether its CO2, O2, C14, whatever, the slope on every one of those historical graphs (taken from ice cores I mean) are always going up or down, never sideways. As for the equator not heating up, what I meant was that the polar and temperate regions are expected to heat up at a much faster rate than the equatorial regions (including the ITCZ, the earths version of the equator). That means that there will be a smaller difference in temperature between the poles and the equator, thus essentially making large storms weaker in intesity because the earth's climate systems will not have to work as hard to try to create a uniform temperature. All wind basically comes from the earth's 23.5 degree tilt. The weather systems are trying to create a uniform temperature (and no, there is sentient no guiding force, its just physics) for the whole planet. If the earth was not tilted, the earth would get an equal amount of sunshine, thus the temperatures would be the same at every longitudinally aligned region on the planet. Since the earth is tilted, different regions get differing amounts of sunlight, thus there are dramatically large differences in temperature around the globe. The earth is trying to compensate for these differences by moving warm and cold air masses around, thus creating wind! This is also why hurricanes are very important in bringing warm air and water to colder regions of the planet. Anywho, that is why global warming, in theory, should lessen hurricane intensity and not increase it, as many global warming proponents have predicted.

[Tindomul]

The tilt of the earth is responsible for the variation of seasons. The angle of the rays of the sun (caused by the curvature of the earth) are responsible for differences in heat absorption. Even if there were no tilt, the poles would still be colder than the equator. In fact, the poles would be way colder than today since there would never be any temperature variation through the year. Yikes.
I don't think equilibrium is a myth, its just a state of being that the earth experiences until something comes along to push it out of equilibrium, if it gets to that point in the first place. And equilibrium is not defined (in my point of view) as the same thing every time. No, equilibrium in a heating earth would be warmer than equilibrium if there was no global warming.
The earth hit equilibrium for millions of years when it became a snowball (snowball earth theory), then something came along and knocked out of that equilibrium, thank God!
I think that with new conditions, factors etc... the earth will struggle to reach a new equilibrium of some sort or other. And the trek to that equilibrium is perilous to life, but not all life, since something has always managed to survive. The question is, will global warming end our way of life? I think so. Perhaps not end humans, just the way we live now.

[isurus79]

Originally Posted by Tindomul

The earth hit equilibrium for millions of years when it became a snowball (snowball earth theory), then something came along and knocked out of that equilibrium, thank God!

Snowball earth must have been a wierd place!! But it was also long before life on earth had a significant impact on planetary systems. While there is an arguement that microbial life was instrumental in ending snowball earth (if I remember correctly), that was the first or one of the first times that life was able to influence the planet's atmospheric composition. The earth has never been in equilibrium since! After that, earth tilt changes, techtonics, life, etc. have kept the planet in a constant state of flux. Once significant amounts of O2 and CO2 were introduced into the atmosphere, the dynamic nature of modern earth really took hold and has not looked back since.

Originally Posted by Tindomul

The question is, will global warming end our way of life? I think so. Perhaps not end humans, just the way we live now.

If global warming is really happening, then our way of life will definitely change!! Of course, our way life has changed dramatically over the past 100 years with and without changes in the climate!! Techology and social issues, among others, have created HUGE social upheavals over the years. Why is global climate change going to change what is already constantly changing (by this I mean our way of life)? The main problem I have with the "expected" changes is that they are ALWAYS negative. All these reports come out saying that everyone will be starving, biodiversity will be extinguished, the world will all of a sudden turn into a desert with massive hurricanes, mosquitos and other pests, all while diseases run amuk as the thermohaline circulation in the oceans grinds to a halt (which is utter and complete nonsense, the last time the oceanic conveyor system stopped was because a damn of freshwater the size of Quebec was released in to the North Atlantic in a matter of days)! To me, its just not believable!! Now I dont believe that we should forget about the negative consequences of what could happen, but I dont want to be spoon fed a bunch of hysterical doomsday scenarios by those who would try to fighten me into believing them!! People like Al Gore have an agenda and fear mongering, in my opinion, seems to be the tactic of choice! Ok, I gotta get back to work. My thesis awaits!!

[Tindomul]

Originally Posted by isurus79

Snowball earth must have been a wierd place!! But it was also long before life on earth had a significant impact on planetary systems. While there is an arguement that microbial life was instrumental in ending snowball earth (if I remember correctly), that was the first or one of the first times that life was able to influence the planet's atmospheric composition.

Ahha!! So you admit that life can influence the climate.

Originally Posted by isurus79

If global warming is really happening, then our way of life will definitely change!! Of course, our way life has changed dramatically over the past 100 years with and without changes in the climate!! Techology and social issues, among others, have created HUGE social upheavals over the years. Why is global climate change going to change what is already constantly changing (by this I mean our way of life)?

because the change will be sudden and catch us at unawares. OR at least that is the fear.

[isurus79]

lol I definitely think life as a whole contributes to the climate and Im not a complete disbeliever regarding the human influence! I guess the only answer is to wait and see!! And also to do what you feel is appropriate to make the environment more healthy. Good conversation though! Thanks!!

[Tindomul]

Originally Posted by isurus79

Good conversation though! Thanks!!

Agreed