Dendrobium Phalaenopsis: Spike or Keiki?

[adam123]

Hello everyone,
One of my dendrobiums has just finished maturing a new pseudobulb, and seems to have gone into spike. However, I continued watering it normally until I found out that watering too much during spike formation could provoke keikis and not flowers. The problem now is that I can't tell if the new "growth" is a keiki or a flower spike… Can anyone help me or is it too early to tell?
I don't know if you can see on the photos, but it looks to me like the "spike" is starting to split as if it's growing leaves… It's no big deal having a keiki, but I'd really rather see it flower!
Thanks!