I think you just have to look at the plant to decide... and remember that as the flowers develop, the weight on the end of the spike increases. If it is very vertical, the weight tends to be evenly distributed and the spike will likely develop the strength to support itself If it's at an angle, maybe not (the law of gravity hasn't been repealed) In nature of course there's nobody to stake spikes... but on the other hand, plants with very long ones often grow hanging downward, so spikes hang that way, no problem. We mess with Mother Nature on these two ways... One, we put the plant pointing upward in the pot - for both aesthetic and maintenance reasons. Two, we breed hybrids for long, spectacular spikes. that may not be able to support their own weight. So... stake when it looks like it might need it. If you like the natural look but want to prevent tragedies like this, you can support the spike with flexible wire instead of a stake. The wire will give added strength, but let the spike arch.
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