I can't tell a thing from the pictures, but judging from your description of what you felt, I think you might be right in assuming it's a bud.
Good luck to you. I hope it is a bud. That would give me hope too. I've had a Paph. 'Macabre' for almost 2 years now without a rebloom. Funny thing is, it grew a bunch while my parents took care of it while I was away at school. I'm afraid of almost everything else dying under their care, but the Paph and a few non-orchids love them and hate me!