Phal scape growth question

[Pilot]

I've pawed through all my books (I'm so hooked on these evil plants) and did a search on the forums and haven't found much on my question-- which is--

From the sight of the first nub of a spike, how long in terms of time (days months) can one expect a Phal to bloom? I imagine it has something to do with the conditions-- so with proper 1000-1500ft candle light in 50% humidity, in-good-health plant, how long can you expect to wait before you see buds opening?

One of my orchids has a spike now and has a new nub growing (doesn't seem to be growing after a week though it looks healthy).

Thanks--

Ryan