I'd like to point out my post on
this thread (#18), made several days ago, where I referenced the million orchid project. Yet somehow:
Quote:
Originally Posted by epiphyte78
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It makes me wonder whether anyone is reading what anyone else is writing!
There is too much noise on this thread. However, since Carlos has actually addressed my questions, please follow-up with answering my followup questions:
Quote:
Originally Posted by epiphyte78
1. For me the goal is greater biodiversity.
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Please clarify whether greater biodiversity refers to extant species only, man-made hybrids only, or both? If your definition includes hybrids, please explain why the countless new hybrids being registered by the RHS every year don't count.
Quote:
Originally Posted by epiphyte78
2. For the most part, hedging bets is a pretty good strategy for minimizing harm. Given that I'm advocating that we hedge our bets, you're basically asking what's the potential harm of hedging our bets. In other words, you're asking what's the potential harm of trying to minimize potential harm.
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Yes, that is exactly what I am asking.
Given the goal you explained in #1, I am assuming 'harm' = 'loss of biodiversity'. In which case, let me rephrase my question:
What's the potential for loss of biodiversity in trying to minimize loss of biodiversity [
using your intervention]?
I added that last bit because we're talking about
your proposal specifically, and not the other methods of 'hedging our bets' (habitat preservation, etc...)
Given the numerous
specific examples of greedy passengers on the terrestrial bus causing 'harm' (as defined above), please provide specific evidence that the epiphytic bus is actually, indeed, a double decker bus with unfilled spots. Given that we have provided specific examples, I only think it's fair you match with the same level of evidence, and
not opinion pieces or expert
deductions by Benzig or Sandford. I trust you know the difference between a review/expert opinion, and a field study/randomized control trial.
While we're talking about the topic of 'harm', please also explain how many spots are on the bus, how you actually know this (so you don't overbook), how you are sure that a new passenger won't decide to take the seat of another passenger, or maybe take up 2 or 3 seats instead of 1, or act so loud and noisy that other passengers don't want to be on the bus anymore. Please explain how you can predict whether or not the child or maybe grandchild of a new introduced passenger and existing passenger might decide to go to an expensive private university down the road, using up all the resources that the original parents needed to survive? Please explain your strategy in making sure passengers share nicely with each other, instead of being greedy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by epiphyte78
3. Can we accomplish the same goal in cultivation? I don't think we can duplicate natural selection and adapative radiation in cultivation.
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You're right, we cannot. However,
your goal is biodiversity pure and simple, is it not? And as I mentioned in point number 1, we're perfectly capable of creating biodiversity, crossing genera left right and centre. Why are we relying on adaptive radiation which takes 1000s of years? We've already achieved your goal!
Quote:
Originally Posted by epiphyte78
4. Hmmm...introduce a fitter lindenii? Well, it's not much of a hedge. Not sure if you heard of it, but there's a million orchid project in Florida. Basically they grow a bunch of native epiphytic orchids from seed and then attach them to street trees. It's pretty great. But imagine if the one million orchids were all clones of the same exact orchid. Even if the clone was wonderful...it would still be only one combination of traits. In essence it would be putting a lot of eggs in one basket. You could even put more eggs in one basket by putting all million orchids in one neighborhood. If that neighborhood was devastated by a hurricane or extreme cold then that would be it. Increasing variety/difference of traits/locations would increase the chances of success.
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I understand the concept of a genetic bottleneck, thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by epiphyte78
5. The immediate problem that we'd be trying to solve is that lindenii might have too much sameness/uniformity to handle the significant changes to its environment.
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You know, you're probably right. In a weird twisted way, I can understand what you're getting at. The environment is changing faster than it has in
human history, and you're advocating that we expedite the evolutionary process to keep up with it by introducing novel genetic material.
I get that. However, the point myself and others have made many times is that we don't think you appreciate the fragility of ecosystems, and the impact an introduced alien can have on existing species. There is abundant evidence supporting examples of harm in carrying out this proposal in the terrestrial 'bus' sphere, so when it all boils down, your
entire proposal relies on the
single assumption that the 'epiphytic bus' is different and immune to these negative impacts. Based upon your blogs, this incredibly important assumption is based on only your own deductions ('epiphyte maths), and a single opinion piece published in the 90s. Take away this assumption, and suddenly all the evidence against doing this in the terrestrial sphere applies to your proposal.
In a way, you've jumped the gun a bit. You are advocating strongly for this intervention using epiphyte maths as the backbone, but you haven't even supported and validated the initial theory of 'epiphyte maths'. Looking at a branch and saying - "hey, it looks pretty bare. It must have microniches!" is not scientific validation. Nor is a single passage from an old text published in the 1990s.
Perhaps if we were working on a blank slate that we were repopulating, this proposal would make a lot of sense: Choosing a collection of hybrids and species that can expand and fill an ecosystem, evolving over years to fill the microniches (like Hawaii, like Galapagos). However, I think the general consensus here is that the potential risks of harm due to the unsupported backbone of 'epiphyte maths' is simply not enough to justify the potential benefits of doing this in
an established ecosystem.
To use orchidsarefun's example:
Quote:
Originally Posted by orchidsarefun
Who or what killed off mountain lions and wolves ? Is the presence of this hybrid a good or a bad thing ?
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The answer is 'We don't know.' We have no idea. This has happened, we don't know whether it's a good thing or a bad thing. Maybe the coyotes did displace/kill the mountain lions and wolves, and maybe they didn't. Someone is probably writing a pHD on it, and we might have an idea in a few years. But are we really willing to risk the last remaining d. lindenii on this unknown variable which we can't possibly predict, when other efforts (breeding the species for genetic diversity in labs, further researching and studying ex situ culture techniques, habitat protection etc...) don't involve this unknown variable?
I hope Carlos and other readers can appreciate the gravity of this unknown when it comes to this proposal. It doesn't take a scientist to understand this concept - to ignore it is pure foolishness.